There is a broad consensus that the US–Taliban peace deal does not augur peace and stability in Afghanistan. However, most of the experts have ignored the role of regional powers and their interests and their impact on the US–Taliban peace deal. This paper explores the case of Iran as a potential spoiler and exacerbating violence and instability in Afghanistan. It discusses three reasons for Iran’s intervention: the Taliban dominating the inclusive national unity government or trying to establish an Islamic Emirate through military force and Iran-Pakistan clash of interests, the continued persecution of Shias and Hazaras by the Taliban and worsening of US–Iran relations. It highlights the various tools especially the non-state actors at Iran’s disposal to achieve its political, economic and strategic objectives in Afghanistan. It also analyses the potential constraints that might limit/inhibit Iran in meeting its foreign policy and security objectives in Afghanistan and the broader region.

人们普遍认为，美国与塔利班的和平协议不会预示阿富汗的和平与稳定。但是，大多数专家都忽略了地区大国的作用及其利益以及它们对美塔利班和平协议的影响。本文探讨了伊朗作为潜在破坏者并加剧阿富汗境内暴力和不稳定局势的情况。它讨论了伊朗干预的三个原因：塔利班控制包容性民族团结政府或试图通过军事力量和伊朗与巴基斯坦的利益冲突建立伊斯兰酋长国；塔利班对什叶派和哈扎拉人的持续迫害以及美伊的恶化关系。它着重介绍了各种工具，尤其是伊朗可以使用的非国家行为者，以实现其在阿富汗的政治，经济和战略目标。