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Spatio-Temporal influence of Non-Pharmaceutical interventions policies on pandemic dynamics and the economy: the case of COVID-19
Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja ( IF 3.080 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-26 , DOI: 10.1080/1331677x.2021.1925573
Teddy Lazebnik 1 , Labib Shami 2 , Svetlana Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky 1
Affiliation  

Abstract

We have developed an extended mathematical graph-based spatial-temporal SIR model, allowing a multidimensional analysis of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the pandemic spread, while assessing the economic losses caused by it. By incorporating into the model dynamics that are a consequence of the interrelationship between the pandemic and the economic crisis, such as job separation not as a result of workers’ morbidity, analysis were enriched. Controlling the spread of the pandemic and preventing outbreaks have been investigated using two NPIs: the duration of working and school days and lockdown to varying degrees among the adult and children populations. Based on the proposed model and data from the Israeli economy, allowing 7.5 working hours alongside 4.5 school hours would maximise output and prevent an outbreak, while minimising the death toll (0.48% of the population). Alternatively, an 89% lockdown among children and a 63% lockdown among adults will minimise the death toll (0.21%) while maximising output and preventing outbreaks.



中文翻译:

非药物干预政策对大流行动态和经济的时空影响:以 COVID-19 为例

摘要

我们开发了一个扩展的基于数学图的时空 SIR 模型,允许对非药物干预对大流行传播的影响进行多维分析,同时评估由此造成的经济损失。通过将大流行与经济危机之间相互关系的结果(例如工作分离不是由于工人的发病率)纳入模型动态,分析得到了丰富。已经使用两个 NPI 对控制大流行的传播和预防爆发进行了调查:工作和上学时间的持续时间以及成人和儿童群体中不同程度的封锁。根据提议的模型和来自以色列经济的数据,允许 7.5 个工作时间和 4.5 个上学时间将最大限度地提高产出并防止爆发,同时尽量减少死亡人数(占人口的 0.48%)。或者,89% 的儿童封锁和 63% 的成人封锁将最大限度地减少死亡人数(0.21%),同时最大限度地提高产出并防止疫情爆发。

更新日期:2021-05-26
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