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Non-Stationary Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments Incorporating Climate-Change-Driven Sea Level Rise
Earth's Future ( IF 8.852 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-25 , DOI: 10.1029/2021ef002007
Ignacio Sepúlveda, Jennifer S. Haase, Philip L.-F. Liu, Mircea Grigoriu, Patricio Winckler

We face a new era in the assessment of multiple natural hazards whose statistics are becoming alarmingly non-stationary due to ubiquitous long-term changes in climate. One particular case is tsunami hazard affected by climate-change-driven sea level rise (SLR). A traditional tsunami hazard assessment approach where SLR is omitted or included as a constant sea-level offset in a probabilistic calculation may misrepresent the impacts of climate-change. In this paper, a general method called non-stationary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (nPTHA), is developed to include the long-term time-varying changes in mean sea level. The nPTHA is based on a non-stationary Poisson process model, which takes advantage of the independence of arrivals within non-overlapping time-intervals to specify a temporally varying hazard mean recurrence rate, affected by SLR. The nPTHA is applied to the South China Sea (SCS) for tsunamis generated by earthquakes in the Manila Subduction Zone. The method provides unique and comprehensive results for inundation hazard, combining tsunami and SLR at a specific location over a given exposure time. The results show that in the SCS, SLR has a significant impact when its amplitude is comparable to that of tsunamis with moderate probability of exceedance. The SLR and its associated uncertainty produce an impact on nPTHA results comparable to that caused by the uncertainty in the earthquake recurrence model. These findings are site-specific and must be analyzed for different regions. The proposed methodology, however, is sufficiently general to include other non-stationary phenomena and can be exploited for other hazards affected by SLR.

中文翻译:

包含气候变化驱动的海平面上升的非平稳概率海啸灾害评估

我们面临着多种自然灾害评估的新时代,由于无处不在的长期气候变化,这些自然灾害的统计数据正变得非常不稳定。一种特殊情况是受气候变化驱动的海平面上升 (SLR) 影响的海啸灾害。传统的海啸灾害评估方法(在概率计算中忽略 SLR 或将其作为恒定的海平面偏移量包括在内)可能会歪曲气候变化的影响。在本文中,开发了一种称为非平稳概率海啸灾害评估 (nPTHA) 的通用方法,以包括平均海平面的长期时变变化。nPTHA 基于非平稳泊松过程模型,它利用非重叠时间间隔内到达的独立性来指定随时间变化的危险平均复发率,受单反影响。nPTHA 应用于南海 (SCS) 以处理马尼拉俯冲带地震产生的海啸。该方法在给定的暴露时间内将特定位置的海啸和 SLR 相结合,为淹没危险提供了独特而全面的结果。结果表明,在南海,SLR在其振幅与中等超越概率的海啸相当时具有显着影响。SLR 及其相关的不确定性对 nPTHA 结果的影响与地震复发模型中的不确定性造成的影响相当。这些发现是针对特定地点的,必须针对不同地区进行分析。然而,所提议的方法足够通用,可以包括其他非平稳现象,并可用于受 SLR 影响的其他危害。nPTHA 应用于南海 (SCS) 以处理马尼拉俯冲带地震产生的海啸。该方法在给定的暴露时间内将特定位置的海啸和 SLR 相结合,为淹没危险提供了独特而全面的结果。结果表明,在南海,SLR在其振幅与中等超越概率的海啸相当时具有显着影响。SLR 及其相关的不确定性对 nPTHA 结果的影响与地震复发模型中的不确定性造成的影响相当。这些发现是针对特定地点的,必须针对不同地区进行分析。然而,所提议的方法足够通用,可以包括其他非平稳现象,并可用于受 SLR 影响的其他危害。nPTHA 应用于南海 (SCS) 以处理马尼拉俯冲带地震产生的海啸。该方法在给定的暴露时间内将特定位置的海啸和 SLR 相结合,为淹没危险提供了独特而全面的结果。结果表明,在南海,SLR在其振幅与中等超越概率的海啸相当时具有显着影响。SLR 及其相关的不确定性对 nPTHA 结果的影响与地震复发模型中的不确定性造成的影响相当。这些发现是针对特定地点的,必须针对不同地区进行分析。然而,所提议的方法足够通用,可以包括其他非平稳现象,并可用于受 SLR 影响的其他危害。
更新日期:2021-06-17
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