The rapid growth and widespread availability of technology has allowed enemies to dynamically develop countermeasures to military systems. Therefore, it is imperative that military systems be designed to account for these countermeasures. As such, technology roadmapping should be a critical activity in the acquisition of defense systems. Technology roadmaps provide a strategic vision for a system that accounts for the operational context, including evolving needs and technology changes. However, the operational context can be difficult to predict. This article suggests using wargaming coupled with combat simulation to better understand the operational context to allow for testing and refining technology roadmaps. Wargaming requires teams to roleplay friendly and enemy units to determine how each side adapts with the implementation of a new military system. Computer-based simulations can then convert the qualitative results from the wargame into quantitative metrics that further inform the roadmap. A case study is presented for a technology roadmap associated with an armored exoskeleton. Wargaming forecasted the countermeasures implemented by the enemy and the associated responses. The wargame results were coupled with models to quantitatively forecast the change in the warfighter's survivability and lethality. The wargame was then used to inform the technology roadmap.

中文翻译：

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将兵棋推演与建模和仿真相结合，预测未来的军事技术需求

技术的快速增长和广泛应用使敌人能够动态地针对军事系统制定对策。因此，设计军事系统以应对这些反措施势在必行。因此，技术路线图应该是采购防御系统的关键活动。技术路线图为系统提供了战略愿景，该系统考虑了运营环境，包括不断变化的需求和技术变化。然而，操作环境可能难以预测。本文建议将兵棋推演与战斗模拟相结合，以更好地了解作战环境，从而可以测试和完善技术路线图。兵棋推演要求团队扮演友军和敌军的角色，以确定每一方如何适应新军事系统的实施。然后，基于计算机的模拟可以将兵棋推演的定性结果转换为定量指标，进一步为路线图提供信息。介绍了与装甲外骨骼相关的技术路线图的案例研究。兵棋推演预测了敌人实施的反制措施和相关反应。兵棋推演结果与模型相结合，以定量预测作战人员的生存能力和杀伤力的变化。然后使用兵棋推演为技术路线图提供信息。介绍了与装甲外骨骼相关的技术路线图的案例研究。兵棋推演预测了敌人实施的反制措施和相关反应。兵棋推演结果与模型相结合，以定量预测作战人员的生存能力和杀伤力的变化。然后使用兵棋推演为技术路线图提供信息。介绍了与装甲外骨骼相关的技术路线图的案例研究。兵棋推演预测了敌人实施的反制措施和相关反应。兵棋推演结果与模型相结合，以定量预测作战人员的生存能力和杀伤力的变化。然后使用兵棋推演为技术路线图提供信息。