Abstract

This study analysed the spatial pattern change of land use from 2005 to 2015 in Xinjiang and proposed a Markov–Future Land Use Simulation composite model to predict land-use change by 2025 under natural growth and ecological protection scenarios. The Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation method was proposed to construct the landscape ecological risk index based on land-use data. By calculating the risk index centroid and standard deviation ellipses, the spatio-temporal patterns and changing characteristics of landscape ecological risk in different scenarios in 2005, 2015, and 2025 were evaluated, and the driving forces of their evolution were also analysed. The results indicated that: (1) The characteristics of land use pattern change under the natural growth scenario from 2015 to 2025 are similar to those from 2005 to 2015. Under an ecological protection scenario, restricting the expansion of construction land, forest land, and grassland, which are the central ecological lands, can be effectively protected. Compared to the natural growth scenario, these areas increased by 507 and 724 km², respectively. (2) From 2005 to 2015, landscape ecological risk in Xinjiang generally showed a decreasing trend. Compared to the natural growth scenario in 2025, ecological protection can effectively reduce the ecological risk of the landscape. The highest, higher, and medium ecological risks were reduced by 0.39%, 3.11%, and 4.43%, respectively, while the areas with the lowest and lower ecological risks increased by 0.16% and 7.77%, respectively. (3) Under the natural growth scenario from 2005 to 2025, the centroid of landscape ecological risk in Xinjiang generally shifted to the southwest. To some extent, the ecological protection scenario can make the distribution of the highest, the higher, and the medium ecological risk areas more dispersed and the distribution of the lower ecological risk areas more concentrated. (4) Temperature is positively correlated with landscape ecological risk, while rainfall, Digital Elevation Model, slope, and aspect are negatively correlated with landscape ecological risk. There is also a correlation between soil types and landscape ecological risk. This research can reference the theory and method of landscape ecological risk and provide decision support for the sustainable development of the ecological environment of Xinjiang.