A now-substantial literature claims that job loss and union dissolution (the end of a marriage or cohabiting relationship) each increase individuals’ risk of the other, highlighting that major negative life events in the labour market and family can spill over across domains. We address three limitations of this research using UK data. First, these associations might arise from unmeasured factors which jointly predispose individuals to the two events. Second, the distinction between job loss (an event) and unemployment (the state it may lead to) has been neglected. Third, where the impact of unemployment has been considered, its duration has not. We simultaneously model both processes: does job loss (or being unemployed) lead to union dissolution, and does union dissolution (or being divorced/separated) lead to job loss? To investigate the role of unobserved, time-invariant confounders, we model the individual-specific effects as random variables allowed to correlate across the models for the two outcomes. Upon allowing such cross-process correlations, we find that job loss and union dissolution have modest and non-significant prospective associations with one another. We also find no support for a connection between being divorced/separated and subsequent job loss. Unemployment appears to increase risk of union dissolution; by attending to duration we uncover gender differences in this relationship.

中文翻译：

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双重麻烦：失业会导致工会解散，反之亦然吗？

如今的大量文献声称，失业和工会解散（婚姻或同居关系的终结）都会增加个人彼此之间的风险，从而凸显出劳动力市场和家庭中的重大负面生活事件可能会蔓延到各个领域。我们使用英国数据来解决这项研究的三个局限性。首先，这些关联可能来自无法衡量的因素，这些因素共同使个人容易陷入这两个事件。第二，失业（事件）与失业（可能发生的状态）之间的区别导致）已被忽略。第三，在考虑失业影响的情况下，没有考虑失业的持续时间。我们同时对这两个过程进行建模：失业（或失业）是否会导致工会解散，而工会解散（或离婚/分居）是否会导致失业？为了研究未观察到的，时间不变的混杂因素的作用，我们将个体特异性效应建模为随机变量，从而允许在两个结果之间的模型之间建立关联。允许这种跨过程的相关性后，我们发现失业和工会解散之间存在适度且不重要的预期关联。我们也发现离婚/分居与随后的失业之间没有联系。失业似乎增加了工会解散的风险；