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Strict ID Laws Don’T Stop Voters: Evidence from a U.S. Nationwide Panel, 2008–2018*
The Quarterly Journal of Economics ( IF 13.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-22 , DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjab019
Enrico Cantoni 1 , Vincent Pons 2
Affiliation  

Abstract
U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote – an ostensive attempt to deter fraud that prompts complaints of selective disenfranchisement. Using a difference-in-differences design on a 1.6-billion-observations panel dataset, 2008–2018, we find that the laws have no negative effect on registration or turnout, overall or for any group defined by race, gender, age, or party affiliation. These results hold through a large number of specifications. Our most demanding specification controls for state, year, and voter fixed effects, along with state and voter time-varying controls. Based on this specification, we obtain point estimates of -0.1 percentage points for effects both on overall registration and turnout (with 95 percent confidence intervals of [-2.3; 2.1 pp] and [-3.0; 2.8 pp], respectively), and +1.4 pp for the effect on the turnout of nonwhite voters relative to whites (with a 95 percent confidence interval of [-0.5; 3.2 pp]). The lack of negative impact on voter turnout cannot be attributed to voters’ reaction against the laws, measured by campaign contributions and self-reported political engagement. However, the likelihood that nonwhite voters were contacted by a campaign increases by 4.7 percentage points, suggesting that parties’ mobilization might have offset modest effects of the laws on the participation of ethnic minorities. Finally, strict ID requirements have no effect on fraud – actual or perceived. Overall, our findings suggest that efforts to improve elections may be better directed at other reforms.


中文翻译:

严格的身份证法不会阻止选民:美国全国委员会的证据,2008-2018年*

摘要
美国各州越来越需要身份证明才能投票-这种表面上的尝试可以阻止欺诈行为,从而引发对选择性剥夺公民权的投诉。使用2008-2018年16亿个观察小组数据集的差异设计,我们发现法律对注册或投票率没有负面影响,总体而言或对由种族,性别,年龄或性别定义的任何群体党的隶属关系。这些结果符合大量规范。我们对状态,年份和选民固定效果最苛刻的规范控件,以及状态和选民时变控件。根据此规范,我们得出的总体注册率和投票率的影响均约为-0.1个百分点(分别为[-2.3; 2.1 pp]和[-3.0; 2.8 pp]的95%置信区间),以及+ 1。相对于白人,对非白人选民投票率的影响为4 pp(95%的置信区间为[-0.5; 3.2 pp])。对选民投票率缺乏负面影响,不能归因于选民对法律的反应,这是通过竞选捐款和自我报告的政治参与来衡量的。但是,竞选活动与非白人选民联系的可能性增加了4.7个百分点,这表明政党的动员可能抵消了法律对少数民族参与的适度影响。最后,严格的身份证明要求不会对欺诈产生影响,无论是实际的还是可感知的。总体而言,我们的调查结果表明,改善选举的努力可能会更好地针对其他改革。对选民投票率缺乏负面影响,不能归因于选民对法律的反应,这是通过竞选捐款和自我报告的政治参与来衡量的。但是,竞选活动与非白人选民联系的可能性增加了4.7个百分点,这表明政党的动员可能抵消了法律对少数民族参与的适度影响。最后,严格的身份证明要求不会对欺诈产生影响,无论是实际的还是可感知的。总体而言,我们的调查结果表明,改善选举的努力可能会更好地针对其他改革。对选民投票率缺乏负面影响,不能归因于选民对法律的反应,这是通过竞选捐款和自我报告的政治参与来衡量的。但是,竞选活动与非白人选民联系的可能性增加了4.7个百分点,这表明政党的动员可能抵消了法律对少数民族参与的适度影响。最后,严格的身份证明要求不会对欺诈产生影响,无论是实际的还是可感知的。总体而言,我们的调查结果表明,改善选举的努力可能会更好地针对其他改革。这表明,政党的动员可能抵消了法律对少数民族参与的适度影响。最后,严格的身份证明要求不会对欺诈产生影响,无论是实际的还是可感知的。总体而言,我们的调查结果表明,改善选举的努力可能会更好地针对其他改革。这表明,政党的动员可能抵消了法律对少数民族参与的适度影响。最后,严格的身份证明要求不会对欺诈产生影响,无论是实际的还是可感知的。总体而言,我们的调查结果表明,改善选举的努力可能会更好地针对其他改革。
更新日期:2021-05-25
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