One of the main challenges for India is increasing food security and promoting economic development using the domestic finite and already stressed natural resources. In the last decades silk production has been booming in India in response to the 2025 silk self-sufficiency goal set by the Indian Ministry of Textile. It is not clear to which extent mulberry (Morus alba), used to feed silkworm in 70% of the total domestic silk production, can be expanded in the wastelands identified by the Indian Government as suitable for moriculture without both endangering natural resources and causing competition for natural resources with the food sector.

This issue is here investigated by a) assessing mulberry water consumption (rain and irrigation) in the plantations presently cultivated and in all the wastelands selected by the government for the expansion of moriculture as well; b) analyzing annual and sub-annual water scarcity induced by mulberry plantations within the plantations; c) studying the potential competition for natural resources between food crops and mulberry. To this end the dynamic spatially distributed crop water balance WATNEEDS model has been used to analyze two different scenarios being the reference scenario considering the present climate and land cover, and the “silk expansion scenario” combining present climate and the new mulberry plantations. Results for the reference scenario show mulberry expansion areas already suffering food insecurity and water scarcity in the dry period. Here, the expansion of mulberry cultivation is shown to exacerbate water scarcity in pre-monsoon months especially in the North-Eastern Region affecting on a yearly scale eleven million people. Results also show expanding food production on wastelands rather than mulberry could be a viable solution for alleviating the burden of malnutrition.

印度面临的主要挑战之一是利用国内有限且已经紧张的自然资源提高粮食安全和促进经济发展。在过去的几十年里，为了响应印度纺织部设定的 2025 年丝绸自给自足目标，印度的丝绸生产一直在蓬勃发展。目前尚不清楚桑树（桑树），占国内丝绸总产量的 70%，可以在印度政府确定的适合桑养的荒地中扩大到何种程度，同时又不会危及自然资源并引起竞争与食品部门的自然资源。

该问题通过以下方式进行调查： a) 评估目前种植的种植园以及政府为扩大桑园种植而选择的所有荒地的桑树用水量（雨水和灌溉）；b) 分析种植园内桑树种植园引起的年度和次年度水资源短缺；c) 研究粮食作物和桑树之间对自然资源的潜在竞争。为此，动态空间分布的作物水分平衡 WATNEEDS 模型已被用于分析两种不同的情景，即考虑当前气候和土地覆盖的参考情景，以及结合当前气候和新桑树种植园的“丝绸扩张情景”。参考情景的结果表明，桑树种植区在旱季已经遭受粮食不安全和水资源短缺的困扰。在这里，桑树种植的扩大在季风前几个月加剧了水资源短缺，特别是在东北地区，每年影响到 1100 万人。结果还表明，在荒地而不是桑树上扩大粮食生产可能是减轻营养不良负担的可行解决方案。