This paper analyzes how computerization affected the labor market outcomes of older workers between 1984 and 2017. Using the computerization supplements of the Current Population Survey (CPS) we show that different occupations were computerized at different times, older workers tended to start using computers with a delay compared to younger workers, but computer use within occupations converged to the same levels across age groups eventually. That is, there was a temporary knowledge gap between younger and older workers in most occupations. Using this variation, we estimate how this knowledge gap affected older workers’ labor market outcomes using millions of observations from the CPS, and additional data from the Health and Retirement Study. Our models control for occupation and time fixed effects and in some models, we also control for full occupation-time interactions and use middle aged (age 40-49) workers as the control group. We find strong and robust negative effects of the knowledge gap on wages, and a large, temporary increase in transitions from work to non-participation. These results are consistent with a model of creative destruction in which the computerization of jobs made older workers’ skills obsolete in birth cohorts that experienced computerization relatively late in their careers. We find larger effects on females and on middle-skilled workers.

本文分析了 1984 年至 2017 年间计算机化如何影响老年工人的劳动力市场结果。利用当前人口调查 (CPS) 的计算机化补充，我们发现不同的职业在不同时间实现计算机化，老年工人开始使用计算机的时间往往较长。与年轻工人相比，计算机使用有所延迟，但不同年龄段的职业中的计算机使用最终趋于一致。也就是说，在大多数职业中，年轻工人和年长工人之间存在暂时的知识差距。利用这种变化，我们利用 CPS 的数百万个观察结果以及健康与退休研究的其他数据来估计这种知识差距如何影响老年工人的劳动力市场结果。我们的模型控制了职业和时间固定效应，在某些模型中，我们还控制了完整的职业时间交互作用，并使用中年（40-49 岁）工人作为对照组。我们发现知识差距对工资产生了强烈的负面影响，并且从工作到不参与的转变出现了大幅、暂时的增加。这些结果与创造性破坏模型相一致，在该模型中，工作的计算机化使那些在职业生涯中经历计算机化相对较晚的出生群体中的老年工人的技能变得过时。我们发现对女性和中等技能工人的影响更大。