This study compares greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections in 2030 under current policies and those under 2030 mitigation targets for nine key non-G20 countries, that collectively account for about 5 % of global total emissions today. These include the four largest non-G20 fossil CO₂ emitting Parties to the UN climate convention pre- Paris Agreement (Iran, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Ukraine) and one of the largest land-use GHG emitters in the world (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Other countries assessed include major economies in their respective regions (Chile, Colombia, Morocco and the Philippines). In addition to economy-wide GHG emissions projections, we also assessed the projected GHG emissions peak year and the progression of per capita GHG emissions up to 2030. Our GHG emissions projections are also compared with previous studies.

On economy-wide GHG emissions, Colombia, Iran, Morocco, and Ukraine were projected to likely meet or significantly overachieve their unconditional 2030 targets with existing policies, while DRC and Thailand would come very close to their targets. Kazakhstan and the Philippines would need to strengthen their action to meet their targets, while Chile recently raised its 2030 target ambition. Only Colombia and Ukraine are projected to have peaked their emissions by 2030. Per capita GHG emissions excluding land-use under current policies were projected to increase in all countries from 2010 levels by 8 % to over 40 % depending on the country. While the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on 2030 emissions is highly uncertain, our assessment on the target achievement would not change for most countries when the emission reductions estimated for 2020 in the literature were assumed to remain in 2030.

The findings of this study highlight the importance of enhanced and frequent progress-tracking of climate action of major emitters outside G20, as is currently done for G20 members, to ensure that the global collective progress will become aligned with the pathways toward Paris climate goals.

这项研究比较了当前政策下的2030年温室气体（GHG）排放预测和九个主要非G20国家的2030年减排目标下的温室气体排放预测，这些国家合计占当今全球总排放量的5％。其中包括四个最大的非G20化石CO ₂联合国气候公约的缔约缔约方（巴黎，伊朗，哈萨克斯坦，泰国和乌克兰）和世界上最大的土地利用温室气体排放国之一（刚果民主共和国）。被评估的其他国家包括其各自地区（智利，哥伦比亚，摩洛哥和菲律宾）的主要经济体。除了对整个经济体的温室气体排放量进行预测外，我们还评估了预计的温室气体排放高峰年以及到2030年人均温室气体排放量的变化情况。我们还将温室气体排放量预测与以前的研究进行了比较。

就整个经济体的温室气体排放而言，预计哥伦比亚，伊朗，摩洛哥和乌克兰可能会通过现有政策达到或大大超额实现其2030年无条件目标，而刚果（金）和泰国将非常接近其目标。哈萨克斯坦和菲律宾将需要加强行动以实现其目标，而智利最近提高了其2030年目标的雄心。预计只有哥伦比亚和乌克兰的排放量到2030年将达到峰值。根据现行政策，不包括土地使用在内的人均温室气体排放量预计将在所有国家/地区中从2010年的水平增加8％至40％以上，具体取决于该国家。虽然COVID-19危机对2030年排放量的影响尚不确定，

这项研究的结果凸显了加强和频繁跟踪二十国集团之外主要排放国气候行动的重要性的重要性，正如目前对二十国集团成员所做的那样，以确保全球集体进步将与实现巴黎气候目标的途径保持一致。