Previous studies have identified vegetation shifts on the Tibetan Plateau in response to climate change. However, the speed and direction of these changes in alpine vegetation are not well understood. To quantify the responses of the distribution of alpine vegetation to global warming of 1.5 °C or 2 °C, BIOME4 was modified using the Penman–Monteith equation to estimate the reference evapotranspiration, and was run with projected climate data under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Gradients of temperature (1–5 °C) and precipitation (−30%–30%) were used to examine the sensitivity of changes in the vegetation pattern to climate. This study suggests that forests on the Tibetan Plateau will expand northwestward with climate warming. Among all forest types, the distribution area of broad-leaved forests will show the greatest increase, whereas mixed needle-broad-leaved forests will show the greatest percentage decrease (~45.5%) relative to the baseline period. Climate warming will result in alpine shrub expansion towards the interior of the Tibetan Plateau, with an average center shift of 309 km under the RCP4.5 scenario with a warming of 1.5 °C. A proportion of alpine meadow will be replaced by alpine shrub, causing it to shrink by ~6.8% under RCP4.5 with a warming of 1.5 °C and by ~15.5% under RCP8.5 with a warming of 2 °C. We conclude that all vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau are susceptible to a warming climate. Increasing temperatures will move the vegetation boundaries northwestward and this trend will be enhanced by increases in precipitation. Understanding the response of vegetation patterns to warming will facilitate better strategies for carbon storage management.

先前的研究已经确定了青藏高原响应气候变化的植被转移。但是，高山植被这些变化的速度和方向尚不十分清楚。为了量化高山植被分布对1.5°C或2°C的全球变暖的响应，使用Penman–Monteith方程对BIOME4进行了修改，以估计参考蒸散量，并在RCP4.5和RCP8.5方案。使用温度（1-5°C）和降水（-30％-30％）的梯度来检验植被格局变化对气候的敏感性。这项研究表明，随着气候变暖，青藏高原上的森林将向西北扩展。在所有森林类型中，阔叶林的分布面积将显示出最大的增长，相较于基准期，针叶阔叶混交林将表现出最大百分比下降（〜45.5％）。气候变暖将导致高山灌木向青藏高原内部扩展，在RCP4.5情景下，平均中心偏移为309 km，变暖为1.5°C。一定比例的高山草甸将被高山灌木所替代，在1.5°C的升温下，RCP4.5收缩约6.8％，在2°C的升温下，RCP8.5收缩约15.5％。我们得出的结论是，青藏高原上的所有植被类型都容易受到气候变暖的影响。温度的升高将使植被边界向西北移动，而降水量的增加将加剧这种趋势。