In this study, we examine the scientific feasibility of an Earthquake Early Warning System in Tehran, Iran, by the integration of the Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO) accelerometric network and the PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo). To evaluate the performance of the TDMMO-PRESTo system in providing the reliable estimations of earthquake parameters and the available lead-times for The Metropolis of Tehran, two different approaches were analyzed in this work. The first approach was assessed by applying the PRESTo algorithms on waveforms from 11 moderate instrumental earthquakes that occurred in the vicinity of Tehran during the period 2009–2020. Moreover, we conducted a simulation analysis using synthetic waveforms of 10 large historical earthquakes that occurred in the vicinity of Tehran. We demonstrated that the six worst-case earthquake scenarios can be considered for The Metropolis of Tehran, which are mostly related to the historical and instrumental events that occurred in the southern, eastern, and western parts of Tehran. Our results indicate that the TDMMO-PRESTo system could provide reliable and sufficient lead-times of about 1 to 15s and maximum lead-times of about 20s for civil protection purposes in The Metropolis of Tehran.

在这项研究中，我们通过整合德黑兰减灾与管理组织（TDMMO）加速度测量网络和PRobabilistic and Evolution预警SysTem（PRESTo），研究了伊朗德黑兰地震预警系统的科学可行性。为了评估TDMMO-PRESTo系统在提供可靠的地震参数估计和德黑兰都会区的可用提前期方面的性能，在这项工作中分析了两种不同的方法。第一种方法是通过将PRESTo算法应用于2009-2020年在德黑兰附近发生的11次中度仪器地震的波形进行评估。此外，我们使用在德黑兰附近发生的10次历史大地震的合成波形进行了模拟分析。我们证明，德黑兰大都会可以考虑六个最坏的地震场景，这与发生在德黑兰南部，东部和西部的历史事件和仪器事件有关。我们的结果表明，TDMMO-PRESTo系统可以为德黑兰都会区的民防目的提供可靠且足够的交货时间，大约为1到15s，最大交货时间为大约20s。