当前位置: X-MOL 学术Theor. Appl. Climatol. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Spatiotemporal analysis of air temperature indices, aridity conditions, and precipitation in Iran
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-21 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03658-1
Amin Sadeqi , Ercan Kahya

Global warming has become a major threat to life on the earth, and recognizing its impacts can definitely be useful in controlling and mitigating its adverse effects. In this study, time series variations in air temperature indices (frost days, Tmin, Tmax, Tmean, Tminmin, Tmaxmax, Tsoil-min), De Martonne aridity index (IDM), and total precipitation were investigated using a long-term meteorological data (1960–2019) of 31 synoptic stations throughout Iran. The results indicated that more than 94% of the stations had increasing trend in Tmean, in which about 70% were significant at the 0.05 level. The average increase in Tmin was calculated approximately 1.7 times higher than Tmax and also the increase in Tminmin was about 2.5 times higher than Tmaxmax. Our findings showed that abrupt changes in Tmin and Tmax mostly observed in the 1990s were upward in 87% of all the stations. Increase in annual Tmean at a rate of 0.3 °C per decade and reduction of 5 mm per decade in total annual precipitation led to decrease in the IDM aridity index by 0.35 per decade in Iran. The intensity of air temperature increase was higher in tropical regions than in cold regions. Trend analysis in the partial series before and after a change point showed that the trends in Tmean before the change point were negative, but turned to positive afterwards in some stations mostly located in the northwestern cold and mountainous regions of the country. Our results revealed that the climate in Iran, in general, has become warmer and drier in the past 60 years and continuation of the current global warming trend will exacerbate this problem in the future.



中文翻译:

伊朗的气温指数,干旱条件和降水的时空分析

全球变暖已成为对地球生命的重大威胁,认识到其影响绝对可以控制和减轻其不利影响。在这项研究中,研究了气温指数的时间序列变化(霜冻天数,T min,T max,T mean,T minmin,T maxmax,T Soil -min),De Martonne干旱指数(I DM)和总降水量使用伊朗全部31个天气观测站的长期气象数据(1960年至2019年)。结果表明,超过94%的台站的T均值呈上升趋势,其中约70%的台站的T均值在0.05水平上具有显着性。T的平均增加计算高于T大约1.7倍最大,并且还T中的增加敏敏为约大于T的2.5倍更高maxmax。我们的发现表明,在1990年代大多数观测到的T min和T max突然变化在所有台站中占87%。伊朗每10年以0.3°C的速度增加平均T,每十年减少5 mm的年平均降水量,导致伊朗的I DM干旱指数每10年减少0.35。在热带地区,气温升高的强度高于寒冷地区。在变化点之前和之后的部分序列趋势分析表明,T的趋势转换点之前的平均数为负,但此后在大多数位于该国西北寒冷和山区的一些站点变为正数。我们的研究结果表明,过去60年来,伊朗的气候总体上变得越来越干燥,目前全球变暖趋势的持续加剧将在未来加剧这一问题。

更新日期:2021-05-22
down
wechat
bug