Income shocks affect violence through the opportunity cost and rapacity effects. Existing studies focus on the impact of transitory shocks, especially commodity price innovations. This paper builds on this literature and studies the causal effect of permanent income shocks on armed conflict in Colombia. Using a rich dataset reporting all guerrilla and other armed groups' attacks by municipality between 2009 and 2014 and information on the provision of banking services, it shows that increasing bancarization leads to reductions in violence. These results have important implications for public policy in countries with a long history of violence. They suggest that promoting financial inclusion is useful for reducing conflict.

收入冲击通过机会成本和贪婪效应影响暴力。现有研究侧重于暂时性冲击的影响，尤其是商品价格创新。本文以这些文献为基础，研究了永久性收入冲击对哥伦比亚武装冲突的因果影响。使用丰富的数据集报告 2009 年至 2014 年市政当局的所有游击队和其他武装团体的袭击以及有关提供银行服务的信息，它表明增加银行化可以减少暴力。这些结果对暴力历史悠久的国家的公共政策具有重要意义。他们认为，促进金融包容性有助于减少冲突。