Peru is the second-largest producer and exporter of copper in the world. This paper proposes a novel approach to assess short-run and long-run effects of copper on Peru’s recent economic growth. Annual data over the 2014–2018 period were used to calculate a Mining Contribution Index (MCI). An institutional quality indicator of the World Competitiveness Index of the World Economic Forum measured the dependence of Peruvian economic growth on mining and the quality of its institutions, respectively. Then, monthly data during the period 2005–2018 were used to run vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC) models to measure copper’s effects on the country’s economy over time. VAR-VEC models included copper production, exports, international price, investment, taxes paid by producing companies, and Peru’s gross domestic product (GDP). Stationarity and causality of variables were verified with the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Granger tests, respectively. Due to the presence of non-stationary variables, a VEC model was implemented to forecast short- and long-run effects. The main results show that real GDP responds to copper output and other related explanatory variables differently, depending upon the instrument applied. Peruvian GDP has increased dependence on copper mining. The quality of its institutions could explain the presence of Dutch Disease or resource curse theory. Short- and long-run effects of copper output on GDP were generally statistically non-significant. GDP was statistically significant in relation to other mining variables, such as copper exports and the international price of copper.

秘鲁是世界第二大铜生产国和出口国。本文提出了一种新颖的方法来评估铜对秘鲁近期经济增长的短期和长期影响。2014-2018年期间的年度数据用于计算矿业贡献指数（MCI）。世界经济论坛世界竞争力指数的机构质量指标分别衡量了秘鲁经济增长对采矿业的依赖程度及其机构的质量。然后，使用2005-2018年期间的月度数据运行矢量自回归（VAR）和矢量误差校正（VEC）模型，以衡量铜对一段时间内对该国经济的影响。VAR-VEC模型包括铜的生产，出口，国际价格，投资，生产公司支付的税款以及秘鲁的国内生产总值（GDP）。变量的平稳性和因果关系分别通过增强Dickey-Fuller和Granger检验进行了验证。由于存在非平稳变量，因此实施了VEC模型来预测短期和长期影响。主要结果表明，实际GDP对铜产量和其他相关解释变量的反应不同，具体取决于所使用的工具。秘鲁的国内生产总值增加了对铜矿开采的依赖。其机构的质量可以解释荷兰疾病或资源诅咒理论的存在。铜产量对国内生产总值的短期和长期影响在统计上通常不显着。与其他采矿变量（例如，铜出口和铜的国际价格）相比，GDP具有统计学意义。