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Do regional trade agreements promote international trade? New empirical evidence from the East African Community
The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development ( IF 2.518 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-20 , DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2021.1930110
Francis Ejones 1 , Frank W. Agbola 1 , Amir Mahmood 2
Affiliation  

Using an extended gravity model that corrects for zero trade, endogeneity and heterogeneity, we empirically investigate whether regional trade agreements (RTAs) promote trade. The model was estimated using a comprehensive panel dataset of the East African Community (EAC) from 1990 to 2017 and applying the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator. Empirical results show that RTAs have enhanced trade within the EAC regional bloc, but the impact varied across countries and sectors. We find that RTAs have led to an increase in imports from and exports to non-bloc countries, and this impact persists after 12 years. Our empirical findings are robust to alternative model specifications. Exploiting RTAs policy implication, this paper provides new empirical evidence highlighting that promoting RTAs could promote trade in the East African Community.



中文翻译:

区域贸易协定是否促进国际贸易?来自东非共同体的新经验证据

使用修正零贸易、内生性和异质性的扩展引力模型,我们实证研究了区域贸易协定 (RTA) 是否促进了贸易。该模型是使用东非共同体 (EAC) 1990 年至 2017 年的综合面板数据集并应用泊松伪最大似然估计器进行估计的。实证结果表明,区域贸易协定促进了东共体区域集团内的贸易,但影响因国家和部门而异。我们发现区域贸易协定导致来自非集团国家的进口和出口增加,这种影响在 12 年后仍然存在。我们的实证研究结果对替代模型规范具有鲁棒性。本文利用区域贸易协定的政策含义,提供了新的经验证据,强调促进区域贸易协定可以促进东非共同体的贸易。

更新日期:2021-05-20
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