Over recent decades, substantial funding from a variety of sources has been directed towards climate change adaptation projects in Pacific Island countries. There remains, however, considerable uncertainty about which factors influence adaptation project completion, as a pre-cursor to effective adaptation. In this study, we empirically establish the links between project attributes (duration, funding, cash co-financing, in-kind contributions, location, and adaptation approach) and whether a project is likely to complete or be terminated. We examine this issue by developing a logistic regression model to predict the probability of completion for small-scale climate change adaptation projects using a new dataset of 190 projects in the South Pacific (with end dates ranging from November 1995 to May 2016) that were financed through the Global Environment Facility Small Grants Programme. Empirical results suggest that all else equal, such a project was more likely to complete if it was shorter, received more co-financing cash input and in-kind support from other donors and project partners, was explicitly targeted towards climate change adaptation, focused on a single adaptation approach, and was undertaken in Micronesia or Fiji. Our results can be used to help funders and project proponents design projects to mitigate the risks of non-completion, particularly in high-risk settings. These findings should not be misinterpreted to undermine the importance of continued investment in adaptation projects across the whole of South Pacific region.

在最近的几十年中，来自各种来源的大量资金已用于太平洋岛国的气候变化适应项目。但是，作为有效适应的先兆，关于哪些因素影响适应项目的完成仍然存在很大的不确定性。在这项研究中，我们根据经验确定项目属性（持续时间，资金，现金共同筹资，实物捐助，位置和适应方法）与项目可能完成还是终止之间的联系。我们通过开发一个逻辑回归模型来研究此问题，该模型使用资助的南太平洋190个项目（结束日期为1995年11月至2016年5月）的新数据集来预测小规模气候变化适应项目的完成概率通过全球环境基金小额赠款计划。实证结果表明，在其他所有条件相同的情况下，如果项目时间较短，则该项目更有可能完成，从其他捐助者和项目伙伴那里获得更多共同供资的现金投入和实物支持，明确针对气候变化适应，重点是密克罗尼西亚或斐济采用了一种单一的适应方法。我们的结果可用于帮助资助者和项目支持者设计项目，以减轻未完成的风险，特别是在高风险环境中。