This study makes a causal inference on the effects of anti-contagion and economic policies on small business by conducting a survey on Japanese small business managers’ expectations about the pandemic, policies, and firm performance. We first find the business suspension request decreased targeted firms’ sales by 10 percentage points on top of the baseline 9 percentage points decline due to COVID-19, even though the Japanese anti-contagion policy was in a form of the government’s request that is not legally enforceable. Second, using a discontinuity in the eligibility criteria, we find lump-sum and prompt subsidies improved firms’ prospects of survival by 19 percentage points. Third, the medium-run recovery of firms’ performance is expected to depend crucially on when infections would end, indicating that the anti-contagion policies could complement longer-run economic goals.

本研究通过对日本小企业管理者对疫情、政策和企业绩效的预期进行调查，对抗传染和经济政策对小企业的影响进行因果推断。我们首先发现，由于 COVID-19，业务暂停请求使目标公司的销售额在基线下降 9 个百分点的基础上下降了 10 个百分点，即使日本的抗传染政策是以政府要求的形式出现的，而不是具有法律效力。其次，使用资格标准的不连续性，我们发现一次性补贴和即时补贴将企业的生存前景提高了 19 个百分点。第三，预计企业业绩的中期复苏将在很大程度上取决于感染何时结束，