This paper uses neoclassical demand theory and applied consumption analysis to calculate the welfare cost of inflation, in the context of the Bailey (1956) approach. We integrate the demand for money with the demands for consumption and leisure, estimate flexible demand functions in a systems context, and show that raising the inflation rate from 2% to 4% in the United States, would impose (on average) a welfare cost equivalent to a loss of 0.30 percent of output when money is measured by our preferred (broad) Divisia M4 monetary aggregate. We also show that the welfare cost of inflation is countercyclical and trends upward over time.

本文在 Bailey (1956) 方法的背景下，使用新古典需求理论和应用消费分析来计算通货膨胀的福利成本。我们将货币需求与消费和休闲需求相结合，估计系统背景下的灵活需求函数，并表明将美国的通货膨胀率从 2% 提高到 4%，将（平均）施加福利成本当以我们首选的（广义）Divisia M4 货币总量衡量货币时，相当于产出损失 0.30%。我们还表明，通货膨胀的福利成本是反周期的，并且随着时间的推移呈上升趋势。