Abstract

Recently, some attempts to increase the stance for fiscal policies in the European budgetary framework have followed the line of reducing the estimated “structural” unemployment rate (NAIRU), with the ensuing increase in the computation of the output gap. A similar effect can be obtained by increasing the actual participation rate. In this paper, we propose the introduction of a deficit-financed conditional minimum income (CMI) to discouraged people which are outside the labor force. By stimulating participation, this measure would bring about an upward revision of Italy’s potential output, and this in turn will contribute to generate a greater fiscal stance. We empirically assess the reliability of this measure by using both comparative statics and empirical estimations carried out via the simulation procedure used by the Output Gaps Working Group of the European Commission. Assuming one million newcomers in the labor force, our findings indicate that the measure would have produced a greater fiscal space of approximately €19 billion in 2016 and €12 billion in 2017. We also forecast the impact of the introduction of the deficit-financed CMI on real GDP and public finance indicators. We finally discuss the feasibility and the main criticisms of the proposal.

摘要

最近，一些在欧洲预算框架中增加财政政策立场的尝试遵循了降低估计“结构性”失业率（NAIRU）的路线，随后增加了产出缺口的计算。提高实际参与率也可以获得类似的效果。在本文中，我们建议引入赤字资助的有条件最低收入（CMI），以鼓励劳动力之外的人。通过刺激参与，该措施将导致意大利潜在产出的向上修正，而这反过来将有助于产生更大的财政立场。我们凭经验通过使用进行两个比较静态和经验估计评估这一措施的可靠性通过欧盟委员会产出差距工作组使用的模拟程序。假设劳动力中有 100 万新移民，我们的调查结果表明，该措施将产生更大的财政空间，2016 年约为 190 亿欧元，2017 年为 120 亿欧元。我们还预测了引入赤字融资的 CMI 的影响实际 GDP 和公共财政指标。我们最后讨论了该提案的可行性和主要批评。