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Decoding trend of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using multimethod approach
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment ( IF 4.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-20 , DOI: 10.1007/s00477-021-02030-z
Atul Saini , Netrananda Sahu

Indian monsoon rainfall has a very strong connection with the Indian economy. Any variation in trend or pattern of Indian summer monsoon rainfall will have serious implications on agronomy, water resources and various associated sectors of the economy in India. In this study, an in-depth investigation of the monsoon rainfall trend is analyzed for 146 years period (1871–2016). Three different spatial scales using a multimethod approach consisting of the Linear Regression Model (LRM), Mann Kendall Test (MKT) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) are analyzed in particular and synchronized way. Monotonic trend with one or the other tests are found in Meteorological Sub-division (MetSD) 3, 4, 14, 11, 10, 19, 20, 27, 8, 29, 28, 23 and 32 (Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana , Konkan & Goa and Coastal Karnataka). Whereas, no significant monotonic trend was found for India as a unit. Two Homogenous Monsoon Regions (HMR) i.e. Central Northeast and Northeast have the monotonic rainfall trend. Moreover, the synchronized methodology made it possible to identify the most refined significant monotonic trend. It revealed a decreasing monotonic trend in MetSD 4, 20 and 27 (Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, East Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh) only. ITA based results revealed that MetSD 14, 8, 19 and 29 (Punjab, Jharkhand, West Madhya Pradesh and Telangana) are a new addition to the list of MetSDs with the significant monotonic trend. Changepoint in the trend is obtained for Northeast HMR in the year 1956 and MetSD 4, 20, 23 and 27 in the year 1969, 1961, 1930 and 1961 respectively. This study provides insight into the most refined trend on monsoon rainfall at different spatial scales in India using the updated methods of analysis.



中文翻译:

多方法方法对印度夏季风降水的解码趋势

印度的季风降雨与印度经济有很强的联系。印度夏季季风降雨的趋势或格局的任何变化都将严重影响印度的农学,水资源和经济的各个相关部门。在本研究中,分析了146年(1871-2016年)的季风降雨趋势的深入调查。使用一种由线性回归模型(LRM),曼恩·肯德尔检验(MKT)和创新趋势分析(ITA)组成的多方法方法,对三种不同的空间尺度进行了具体和同步的分析。在气象分区(MetSD)3、4、14、11、10、19、20、27、8、29、28、23和32(阿萨姆邦,梅加拉亚邦,曼尼普尔邦,米佐拉姆邦,那加兰邦,特里普拉邦,旁遮普邦,北方邦,中央邦,恰蒂斯加尔邦,贾坎德邦,安得拉邦(Andhra Pradesh),特兰加纳邦(Telangana),康坎(Konkan)和果阿(Goa)和沿海卡纳塔克邦(沿海)而印度作为一个单位没有发现明显的单调趋势。东北中部和东北两个均质季风区(HMR)具有单调降雨趋势。此外,同步方法使确定最精炼的显着单调趋势成为可能。它揭示了仅在MetSD 4、20和27(曼尼普尔邦,米佐拉姆邦,那加兰邦,特里普拉邦,东中央邦和恰蒂斯加尔邦)的单调趋势下降。基于ITA的结果表明,MetSD 14、8、19和29(旁遮普,贾坎德邦,西中央邦和Telangana)是具有明显单调趋势的MetSD列表中的新成员。在1956年的东北HMR和在1969年,1961年,1930年和1961年的MetSD 4、20、23和27中分别获得了趋势的变化点。

更新日期:2021-05-20
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