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Integrated mapping of water-related disasters using the analytical hierarchy process under land use change and climate change issues in Laos
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-20 , DOI: 10.5194/nhess-21-1551-2021
Sengphrachanh Phakonkham , So Kazama , Daisuke Komori

In the past few decades, various natural hazards have occurred in Laos. To lower the consequences and losses caused by hazardous events, it is important to understand the magnitude of each hazard and the potential impact area. The main objective of this study was to propose a new approach to integrating hazard maps to detect hazardous areas on a national scale, for which area-limited data are available. The integrated hazard maps were based on a merging of five hazard maps: floods, land use changes, landslides, climate change impacts on floods, and climate change impacts on landslides. The integrated hazard map consists of six maps under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and two time periods (near future and far future). The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used as a tool to combine the different hazard maps into an integrated hazard map. From the results, comparing the increase in the very high hazard area between the integrated hazard maps of the far future under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, Khammouan Province has the highest increase (16.45 %). Additionally, the very high hazard area in Khammouan Province increased by approximately 12.47 % between the integrated hazard maps under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of the far future. The integrated hazard maps can pinpoint the dangerous area through the whole country, and the map can be used as primary data for selected future development areas. There are some limitations of the AHP methodology, which supposes linear independence of alternatives and criteria.

中文翻译:

在老挝土地利用变化和气候变化问题下使用层次分析法对与水有关的灾害进行综合绘图

在过去的几十年中,老挝发生了各种自然灾害。为了降低危险事件造成的后果和损失,重要的是要了解每种危险的程度和潜在的影响范围。这项研究的主要目的是提出一种整合危险图谱的新方法,以在全国范围内检测到具有区域限制数据的危险区域。综合的灾害图基于五个灾害图的合并:洪水,土地利用变化,滑坡,气候变化对洪水的影响以及气候变化对滑坡的影响。综合危害图由三个代表性浓度途径(RCP)方案和两个时间段(不久的将来和很久的未来)下的六张地图组成。层次分析法(AHP)被用作将不同的危害图组合成一个综合危害图的工具。从结果中,比较RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下远期综合危害图之间极高危险区域的增长,康穆安省的增幅最大(16.45%)。此外,在遥远的未来RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,康莫安省的极高危险区域在综合危险地图之间增加了约12.47%。集成的危险地图可以查明整个国家的危险区域,并且该地图可以用作选定的未来开发区域的主要数据。AHP方法有一些局限性,它假设替代方案和标准具有线性独立性。比较RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下的远期综合危害图之间极高危险区域的增长,康穆安省的增幅最高(16.45%)。此外,在遥远的未来RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,康莫安省的极高危险区域在综合危险地图之间增加了约12.47%。集成的危险地图可以查明整个国家的危险区域,并且该地图可以用作选定的未来开发区域的主要数据。AHP方法有一些局限性,它假设替代方案和标准具有线性独立性。比较RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下的远期综合危害图之间极高危险区域的增长,康穆安省的增幅最高(16.45%)。此外,在遥远的未来RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,康莫安省的极高危险区域在综合危险地图之间增加了约12.47%。集成的危险地图可以查明整个国家的危险区域,并且该地图可以用作选定的未来开发区域的主要数据。AHP方法有一些局限性,它假设替代方案和标准具有线性独立性。此外,在遥远的未来RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,康莫安省的极高危险区域在综合危险地图之间增加了约12.47%。集成的危险地图可以查明整个国家的危险区域,并且该地图可以用作选定的未来开发区域的主要数据。AHP方法有一些局限性,它假设替代方案和标准具有线性独立性。此外,在遥远的未来RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,康莫安省的极高危险区域在综合危险地图之间增加了约12.47%。集成的危险地图可以查明整个国家的危险区域,并且该地图可以用作选定的未来开发区域的主要数据。AHP方法有一些局限性,它假设替代方案和标准具有线性独立性。
更新日期:2021-05-20
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