Rangers collect law enforcement monitoring (LEM) data during their patrols in protected areas. These data are increasingly used to interpret patrolling effectiveness and to predict poaching activity. However, LEM data can contain biases that may weaken the conclusions derived from such analyses. Research data, collected from 82 km of desnaring transects and interviews with 31 rangers, were compared with recorded LEM data. The latter included a logbook in which poacher sightings were documented, desnaring reports containing the locations of known snaring hotspots, and patrol strategies, containing the allocation of ranger patrols within the conservancy. Our findings suggest that the poaching prevalence reported through the LEM data is likely to constitute an underestimation of the true prevalence. Patrolling strategies were found to be predictable, allowing poachers to evade detection. One-third of the interviewed rangers admitted to not reporting sighted poachers. We conclude that the use of LEM data for analysis or poaching prediction by managers of protected areas or researchers requires careful consideration of patrol predictability, possible displacement of poaching activity, and ranger culture and morale in order to avoid underestimation of true poaching prevalence.

中文翻译：

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比较执法监测数据和研究数据表明，在肯尼亚世界遗产地通过诱捕偷猎野味被低估了

护林员在保护区巡逻期间收集执法监测 (LEM) 数据。这些数据越来越多地用于解释巡逻效率和预测偷猎活动。然而，LEM 数据可能包含可能削弱从此类分析得出的结论的偏差。从 82 公里的去捕猎样带和对 31 名护林员的采访中收集的研究数据与记录的 LEM 数据进行了比较。后者包括记录偷猎者目击事件的日志、包含已知诱捕热点位置的解除诱捕报告和巡逻策略，其中包含保护区内护林员巡逻的分配。我们的研究结果表明，通过 LEM 数据报告的偷猎流行率可能构成对真实流行率的低估。巡逻策略被发现是可预测的，允许偷猎者逃避侦查。三分之一的受访护林员承认没有报告有视力的偷猎者。我们得出结论，保护区管理者或研究人员使用 LEM 数据进行分析或偷猎预测需要仔细考虑巡逻的可预测性、偷猎活动的可能转移以及护林员的文化和士气，以避免低估真正的偷猎流行率。