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Intra-regional spillovers from Nigeria and South Africa to the rest of Africa: New evidence from a FAVAR model
The World Economy ( IF 2.000 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-18 , DOI: 10.1111/twec.13140
Oyenyinka Sunday Omoshoro‐Jones 1 , Lumengo Bonga‐Bonga 2
Affiliation  

The dominance of large resource-rich hegemonic economies, most notably Nigeria and South Africa, with extensive trade and possible financial linkages, exposes other Africa countries to intra-regional spillovers. However, this strand of empirical analysis remains largely unstudied, as extant studies are mostly devoted to investigating the implications of external (global) shocks. This paper contributes to the existing literature by investigating the extent to which shocks to economic growth in Nigeria and South Africa spillover to three regional bodies, namely Central African Economic and Monetary Union (CEMAC), Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The paper distinguishes between trade and financial channels to identify these growth spillovers by using a two-step FAVAR model. The results of the empirical analysis show that the trade channel is effective for growth spillovers from Nigeria and South Africa to the three regional blocs. However, we find no evidence of growth spillover from the financial channel, except between South Africa and the SADC region. The paper postulates that although the total intra-African trade remains low, it remains an important channel for growth spillover in the continent. Thus, any initiative, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) should be encouraged, to expand trade in the continent.

中文翻译:

从尼日利亚和南非到非洲其他地区的区域内溢出效应:来自 FAVAR 模型的新证据

拥有广泛贸易和可能的金融联系的大型资源丰富的霸权经济体(尤其是尼日利亚和南非)的主导地位使其他非洲国家面临区域内溢出效应。然而,由于现有的研究主要致力于调查外部(全球)冲击的影响,这一实证分析在很大程度上仍未得到研究。本文通过调查尼日利亚和南非的经济增长冲击波及三个区域机构的程度,即中非经济和货币联盟 (CEMAC)、南部非洲发展共同体 (SADC) 和非洲经济共同体,对现有文献做出了贡献。西非国家(西非经共体)。本文通过使用两步法 FAVAR 模型区分贸易和金融渠道,以识别这些增长溢出效应。实证分析结果表明,贸易渠道对尼日利亚和南非对三个区域集团的增长溢出效应有效。然而,我们没有发现金融渠道增长溢出的证据,除了南非和 SADC 地区之间。该文件假设,尽管非洲内部贸易总额仍然很低,但它仍然是非洲大陆增长溢出的重要渠道。因此,应鼓励任何倡议,例如非洲大陆自由贸易区 (AfCFTA),以扩大非洲大陆的贸易。该文件假设,尽管非洲内部贸易总额仍然很低,但它仍然是非洲大陆增长溢出的重要渠道。因此,应鼓励任何倡议,例如非洲大陆自由贸易区 (AfCFTA),以扩大非洲大陆的贸易。该文件假设,尽管非洲内部贸易总额仍然很低,但它仍然是非洲大陆增长溢出的重要渠道。因此,应鼓励任何倡议,例如非洲大陆自由贸易区 (AfCFTA),以扩大非洲大陆的贸易。
更新日期:2021-05-18
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