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Resilience analysis: A formulation to model risk factors on complex system resilience
International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management Pub Date : 2021-05-18 , DOI: 10.1007/s13198-021-01131-w
Adel Mottahedi , Farhang Sereshki , Mohammad Ataei , Ali Nouri Qarahasanlou , Abbas Barabadi

Resilience is about the ability of the system to resist, adapt to, and expeditiously recover from a disruptive event. The first and maybe the crucial step of resilience management is known as resilience analysis. However, there are many obstacles in front of the analyzers to analyze the resilience of systems. One of these obstacles is precise resilience data accessibility. Conventional resilience analysis methods frequently only consider historical data (e.g., time to repair and time to failure). However, to analyze the system resilience more precisely, the effect of the risk factors, which are known as observed and unobserved covariates, should be considered in the collected resilience database. These covariates will lead to the observed and unobserved heterogeneities among the collected database. Ignoring the effect of covariate may lead to erroneous conclusion about the resilience level of the system. Since it is hard to find a homogeneous operating condition, in this study, a formulation is proposed to model the effect of these covariates on complex system resilience. Finally, it is applied to a transportation system of a surface mine.



中文翻译:

弹性分析:一种用于建模复杂系统弹性风险因素的公式

复原力是指系统抵抗,适应并迅速从破坏性事件中恢复的能力。弹性管理的第一步(可能是至关重要的步骤)称为弹性分析。但是,分析仪在分析系统弹性时会遇到很多障碍。这些障碍之一是精确的弹性数据可访问性。传统的弹性分析方法通常仅考虑历史数据(例如,维修时间和故障时间)。但是,为了更精确地分析系统弹性,应在收集的弹性数据库中考虑被称为观察到的和未观察到的协变量的风险因素的影响。这些协变量将导致在收集的数据库中观察到的和未观察到的异质性。忽略协变量的影响可能导致有关系统弹性水平的错误结论。由于很难找到均匀的工作条件,因此在本研究中,提出了一种公式来模拟这些协变量对复杂系统弹性的影响。最后,将其应用于露天矿的运输系统。

更新日期:2021-05-19
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