The quality assurance and evaluation of primary schools requires early risk detection. This is a daunting task, not only because risks are typically rare and their origins complex, but also because governing institutions have limited resources and capacity and desire efficiency and proportionality. Many countries, including most Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, use inspections to detect schools at risk. In order to aid these efforts, we first evaluate various case-based prediction models, and then propose a principled exploit–explore procedure for organizing school inspections. We demonstrate these methods using data from the Dutch Inspectorate of Education, which monitors the regulatory compliance of roughly 6,000 primary schools. The approach has the potential to balance the benefits of prioritizing inspections of predicted high-risk schools on the one hand, with the benefits of verifying predicted risks and causal impact evaluations of school inspections on the other hand.

中文翻译：

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在检测有风险的小学时权衡取舍

小学的质量保证和评估需要及早发现风险。这是一项艰巨的任务，不仅因为风险通常很少见且起源复杂，还因为管理机构的资源和能力有限，渴望效率和相称性。许多国家，包括大多数经济合作与发展组织国家，都使用检查来发现有风险的学校。为了帮助这些努力，我们首先评估了各种基于案例的预测模型，然后提出了一个有原则的利用-探索程序来组织学校检查。我们使用来自荷兰教育监察局的数据来演示这些方法，该监察局监测大约 6,000 所小学的法规遵从性。