Abstract

Uzbekistan’s unique post-independence experiment with development was led by Islam Karimov until his sudden death in September 2016. Despite defying international advice on structural reforms, under Karimov’s rule, Uzbekistan achieved an average annual growth rate of 5% in the period 1996–2016, which was particularly impressive (over 8%) in 2004–2016. Karimov also left behind strong macroeconomic fundamentals for his successor. Since taking over the presidency in December 2016, Shavkat Mirziyoyev has introduced wide-ranging reforms, creating an impression of a de facto start to transition in Uzbekistan. This study analyses Karimov’s economic legacy and assesses whether it has enabled or hindered the developmental targets set by his successor.

摘要

乌兹别克斯坦独立后独特的发展试验由伊斯兰卡里莫夫领导，直到他于 2016 年 9 月突然去世。 尽管无视国际上关于结构性改革的建议，但在卡里莫夫的统治下，乌兹别克斯坦在 1996 年至 2016 年期间实现了 5% 的年均增长率， 2004-2016 年尤其令人印象深刻（超过 8%）。卡里莫夫还为他的继任者留下了强劲的宏观经济基本面。自 2016 年 12 月接任总统以来，Shavkat Mirziyoyev 进行了广泛的改革，给人一种乌兹别克斯坦实际上开始过渡的印象。本研究分析了卡里莫夫的经济遗产，并评估它是否促成或阻碍了其继任者设定的发展目标。