Incorporating species’ ability to adaptively respond to climate change is critical for robustly predicting persistence. One such example could be the adaptive role of algal symbionts in setting coral thermal tolerance under global warming and ocean acidification. Using a global ecological and evolutionary model of competing branching and mounding coral morphotypes, we show symbiont shuffling (towards taxa with increased heat tolerance) was more effective than symbiont evolution in delaying coral-cover declines, but stronger warming rates (high emissions scenarios) outpace the ability of these adaptive processes and limit coral persistence. Acidification has a small impact on reef degradation rates relative to warming. Global patterns in coral reef vulnerability to climate are sensitive to the interaction of warming rate and adaptive capacity and cannot be predicted by either factor alone. Overall, our results show how models of spatially resolved adaptive mechanisms can inform conservation decisions.

结合物种对气候变化的适应性反应能力对于稳健地预测持久性至关重要。一个这样的例子可能是藻类共生体在全球变暖和海洋酸化下设置珊瑚耐热性方面的适应性作用。使用竞争分支和隆起珊瑚形态类型的全球生态和进化模型，我们表明共生体改组（朝向具有更高耐热性的分类群）在延迟珊瑚覆盖下降方面比共生体进化更有效，但更强的升温速率（高排放情景）超过这些适应过程的能力并限制珊瑚的持久性。相对于变暖，酸化对珊瑚礁退化率的影响很小。珊瑚礁对气候的脆弱性的全球模式对变暖速率和适应能力的相互作用很敏感，并且不能单独由任何一个因素来预测。总体而言，我们的结果显示了空间分辨的自适应机制模型如何为保护决策提供信息。