Confidence is often seen as an important determinant of success. However, empirical evidence regarding the causal effect of confidence on choices is sparse. Using a stylized laboratory experiment, we examine the effect of an increase in confidence on two important labor market choices: (i) the amount of ability-contingent earnings risk to take on, and (ii) the subsequent effort choice. We find that increased confidence leads subjects to take on more ability-contingent earnings risk. However, effort levels are unaffected. Overall, the upward shift in confidence is detrimental for low-ability workers as a result of high baseline levels of confidence.

中文翻译：

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信心和职业选择：一个实验*

自信通常被视为成功的重要决定因素。然而，关于信心对选择的因果影响的经验证据很少。使用程式化的实验室实验，我们检查了信心增加对两个重要的劳动力市场选择的影响：（i）承担能力的或有收入风险的数量，以及（ii）随后的努力选择。我们发现，增加的信心会导致受试者承担更多的能力或有收入风险。但是，努力水平不受影响。总体而言，由于基线信心水平较高，信心向上转变对低能力工人不利。