Understanding how anthropogenic disturbances affect plant–pollinator systems has important implications for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Previous laboratory studies show that pesticides and pathogens, which have been implicated in the rapid global decline of pollinators over recent years, can impair behavioral processes needed for pollinators to adaptively exploit floral resources and effectively transfer pollen among plants. However, the potential for these sublethal stressor effects on pollinator–plant interactions at the individual level to scale up into changes to the dynamics of wild plant and pollinator populations at the system level remains unclear. We developed an empirically parameterized agent-based model of a bumblebee pollination system called SimBee to test for effects of stressor-induced decreases in the memory capacity and information processing speed of individual foragers on bee abundance (scenario 1), plant diversity (scenario 2), and bee–plant system stability (scenario 3) over 20 virtual seasons. Modeling of a simple pollination network of a bumblebee and four co-flowering bee-pollinated plant species indicated that bee decline and plant species extinction events could occur when only 25% of the forager population showed cognitive impairment. Higher percentages of impairment caused 50% bee loss in just five virtual seasons and system-wide extinction events in less than 20 virtual seasons under some conditions. Plant species extinctions occurred regardless of bee population size, indicating that stressor-induced changes to pollinator behavior alone could drive species loss from plant communities. These findings indicate that sublethal stressor effects on pollinator behavioral mechanisms, although seemingly insignificant at the level of individuals, have the cumulative potential in principle to degrade plant–pollinator species interactions at the system level. Our work highlights the importance of an agent-based modeling approach for the identification and mitigation of anthropogenic impacts on plant–pollinator systems.

中文翻译：

---

模拟从个体传粉者行为到传粉系统的人为影响的放大

了解人为干扰如何影响植物传粉系统对保护生物多样性和生态系统功能具有重要意义。先前的实验室研究表明，近年来全球传粉媒介的迅速减少与农药和病原体有关，它们会损害传粉媒介适应性开发花卉资源和有效地在植物之间转移花粉所需的行为过程。然而，这些亚致死压力因素在个体水平上对传粉媒介-植物相互作用的影响在系统水平上扩大到野生植物和传粉媒介种群动态变化的潜力尚不清楚。我们开发了一个基于经验参数化的基于代理的大黄蜂授粉系统模型，称为 SimBee，以测试压力源引起的个体觅食者记忆容量和信息处理速度下降对蜜蜂丰度（场景 1）、植物多样性（场景 2）的影响，以及超过 20 个虚拟季节的蜜蜂植物系统稳定性（场景 3）。对大黄蜂和四种同花蜜蜂授粉植物物种的简单授粉网络进行建模表明，当只有 25% 的觅食者种群出现认知障碍时，可能会发生蜜蜂数量下降和植物物种灭绝事件。在某些情况下，仅 5 个虚拟季节和系统范围内的灭绝事件导致 50% 的蜜蜂损失，不到 20 个虚拟季节。无论蜜蜂种群大小，植物物种灭绝都会发生，表明压力源引起的传粉媒介行为变化可能会导致植物群落的物种丧失。这些发现表明，亚致死应激对传粉媒介行为机制的影响，虽然在个体水平上看似微不足道，但原则上具有在系统水平上降低植物 - 传粉媒介物种相互作用的累积潜力。我们的工作强调了基于代理的建模方法在识别和减轻人为对植物授粉系统的影响方面的重要性。原则上具有在系统水平上降低植物 - 传粉媒介物种相互作用的累积潜力。我们的工作强调了基于代理的建模方法在识别和减轻人为对植物授粉系统的影响方面的重要性。原则上具有在系统水平上降低植物 - 传粉媒介物种相互作用的累积潜力。我们的工作强调了基于代理的建模方法在识别和减轻人为对植物授粉系统的影响方面的重要性。