ABSTRACT

In this article, we provide a structured review of crude oil price dynamics. Specifically, we summarize evidence on important factors determining oil prices, cover the impact of oil market shocks on the macro economy and the stock market, discuss how the financialization of crude oil markets affects oil market functionality and efficiency, and we then outline approaches for forecasting crude oil prices and volatility. By comparing the results of the most influential early contributions and recent studies, we can identify important developments and research gaps in each field. Thus, our review provides academics and practitioners newly engaging in crude oil research with an overview of what scientists know about crude oil dynamics and highlights which topics are particularly promising for future research.

摘要

在本文中，我们对原油价格动态进行了结构化回顾。具体来说，我们总结了决定油价的重要因素的证据，涵盖了石油市场冲击对宏观经济和股市的影响，讨论了原油市场的金融化如何影响石油市场的功能和效率，然后我们概述了预测方法原油价格和波动。通过比较最有影响力的早期贡献和近期研究的结果，我们可以确定每个领域的重要发展和研究差距。因此，我们的评论为新从事原油研究的学者和从业者提供了科学家对原油动力学了解的概述，并重点介绍了哪些主题对未来的研究特别有希望。