This study aims to explore the causal relationship between fiscal deficit (FD) and current account deficit (CAD) along with policy recommendations based on long-run and short-run dynamics and sensitivities. A panel data span from 1990 to 2019 is analyzed based on panel unit root tests, panel co-integration with auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL), panel co-integration regression with fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and causal analysis with the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (DH) technique. The results disclosed that all tested variables are stationary at the first difference I(1) except the real interest rate (IR), which is stationary at level I(0). The ARDL estimates suggested that there is a long-run relationship between tested variables and 92% annual convergence is possible for long-run equilibrium. The FMOLS and DOLS estimates indicated that the CAD is sensitive towards the FD and the exchange rate. The DH causality test showed that the CAD is significantly affecting the FD, supporting the current account targeting hypothesis. Furthermore, it is observed that the interest rate is acting as a moderating factor between the FD and the CAD because it causes both the deficits. Thus, reverse causality is concluded from the CAD to the FD. These results have macroeconomic implications for fiscal policy in the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN-10).

中文翻译：

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东盟财政赤字与经常账户赤字之间的因果关系：来自面板计量经济分析的证据

这项研究旨在探讨财政赤字（FD）与经常账户赤字（CAD）之间的因果关系，以及基于长期和短期动态及敏感性的政策建议。根据面板单位根检验，具有自回归分布滞后（ARDL）的面板协整，具有完全修改的普通最小二乘（FMOLS）和动态普通最小二乘的面板协整回归，分析了1990年至2019年的面板数据跨度（DOLS），以及使用Dumitrescu和Hurlin（DH）技术进行的因果分析。结果表明，除实际利率（IR）稳定在I（0）级别外，所有测试变量的第一差异I（1）都是稳定的。ARDL估计表明，测试变量之间存在长期关系，长期平衡有可能达到92％的年度收敛。FMOLS和DOLS估计表明CAD对FD和汇率敏感。DH因果关系测试表明，CAD显着影响FD，支持经常账户定位假设。此外，可以观察到，利率是FD和CAD之间的调节因素，因为它同时引起赤字。因此，可以得出从CAD到FD的反向因果关系。这些结果对东南亚国家联盟（ASEAN-10）的财政政策具有宏观经济影响。DH因果关系测试表明，CAD显着影响FD，支持经常账户定位假设。此外，可以观察到，利率是FD和CAD之间的调节因素，因为它同时引起赤字。因此，可以得出从CAD到FD的反向因果关系。这些结果对东南亚国家联盟（ASEAN-10）的财政政策具有宏观经济影响。DH因果关系测试表明，CAD显着影响FD，支持经常账户定位假设。此外，可以观察到，利率是FD和CAD之间的调节因素，因为它同时引起赤字。因此，可以得出从CAD到FD的反向因果关系。这些结果对东南亚国家联盟（ASEAN-10）的财政政策具有宏观经济影响。