This study assessed the long-run (LR) and short-run (SR) impacts of climatic and non-climatic factors, i.e., CO₂ emissions (CO₂e), average level of temperature (ALT), average level of precipitation (ALP), area harvested of wheat and rice crops (AHW and (AHR), domestic credit (DCR), and agricultural labor (ALB) on wheat and rice production (WP and RP) in Turkey by using annual time series data ranging from 1980 to 2016 and by employing several econometric techniques. The autoregressive distributed lag-bounds (ARDL) approach and the Johansen and Juselius cointegration (JJC) test confirmed a valid long-term connection among underlying variables. The estimation results from the ARDL model reveal that climatic factors such as CO₂ emissions and temperature adversely affected wheat production in the long run as well as in the short run, whereas precipitation positively improved wheat production in both periods. Further results indicate that non-climatic factors like area harvested of wheat and domestic credit positively and significantly enhanced wheat production in the long run and short run. Similarly, CO₂ emissions also adversely affected rice production in both periods, while temperature and precipitation positively contributed towards rice production in both cases. In addition, area harvested of rice positively and significantly boosted rice production in the long run as well as in the short run, while domestic credit negatively influenced rice production in the long run but in the short run positively improved rice production. Additionally, the outcomes of the VECM Granger Causality for both rice and wheat production confirm that both climatic and non-climatic variables have a strong influence on the production of both crops. This study found that climate change has a deleterious influence on both wheat and rice production; therefore, the study suggests that temperature-resistant varieties of both crops should be developed and introduced by agricultural research institutions. In addition to this, up-to-date information is more needed related to climate change, and in the farming communities, it should be provided by agricultural extension workers.

本研究评估了气候和非气候因素的长期（LR）和短期（SR）影响，即CO ₂排放量（CO ₂ e）、平均气温（ALT）、平均降水量（ ALP)、小麦和水稻作物收获面积 (AHW 和 (AHR)、国内信贷 (DCR) 以及土耳其小麦和水稻生产 (WP 和 RP) 的农业劳动力 (ALB)，使用 1980 年的年度时间序列数据到 2016 年，并通过采用多种计量经济学技术。自回归分布滞后边界 (ARDL) 方法和 Johansen 和 Juselius 协整 (JJC) 检验证实了基础变量之间的有效长期联系。ARDL 模型的估计结果表明，气候CO ₂等因素排放和温度在长期和短期内都对小麦产量产生不利影响，而降水在这两个时期都对小麦产量产生了积极影响。进一步的结果表明，小麦收割面积和国内信贷等非气候因素在长期和短期内均显着提高了小麦产量。同样，CO ₂排放也对这两个时期的稻米生产产生了不利影响，而温度和降水在这两个时期都对稻米生产产生了积极影响。此外，稻米收割面积在长期和短期内都对稻米产量产生了积极和显着的促进作用，而国内信贷长期对稻米产量产生负面影响，但在短期内对稻米产量产生积极影响。此外，水稻和小麦生产的 VECM 格兰杰因果关系的结果证实，气候和非气候变量对这两种作物的生产都有很大的影响。这项研究发现，气候变化对小麦和水稻的生产都有不利影响；所以，该研究表明，农业研究机构应开发和引进这两种作物的耐温品种。除此之外，更需要与气候变化有关的最新信息，在农业社区，应由农业推广人员提供。