The old paradigm of horizontal expansion of agricultural land and built-up areas over highland and lowland ecosystems remains highly prevalent in Cameroon, causing significant changes in LULC and undermining the resilience and sustainability of social-ecological systems. We analysed satellite imagery of 1986 and 2018 to examine the extent and spatial patterns of LULCC in Fako sub-region of Cameroon. In addition, we explored the likelihood of LULCC and magnitude of impact of the drivers and predictors of LULCC in the sub-region by engaging 25 stakeholders in a focus group survey. Other cultivated areas of cropland, built-up, oil palm, and banana plantation covers increased by 21,360 ha (10.5%), 3152 ha (1.6%), 5721 ha (2.8%), and 1823 ha (0.9%), while dense forest, rubber and tea plantation covers decreased by − 44,945 ha (− 22.1%), − 15,557 ha (− 7.7%), and − 110 ha (− 0.1%), respectively, from 1986 to 2018. Most of the deforestation and LULCC was caused by expansion of other cultivated areas of cropland by smallholders, contrary to the widely publicised narrative of agro-industrial and built-up areas expansion. The spatial pattern of LULCC showed that expansion of other cultivated areas of cropland and agro-industrial plantations were highest in the north and east zones, respectively, while expansion of built-up areas and decrease in agro-industrial plantation covers were highest in the central, south and western coastal zones of Fako division. The variations in the spatial patterns of LULCC between the sub-divisions are attributed to differences in rates of population growth and urbanisation, topography, size of farming population, proportion of cultivable land, socio-economic opportunities, and strength and resilience of local economy. The presence of the Mount Cameroon (4095 m), with high value forests, endemism, and conservation attractiveness restricted increased LULCC with elevation, while LULCC increased with nearness to the sea and national road networks. The likelihood of change from one LULC to oil palm plantation, banana plantation, and other cultivated areas and from rubber plantation, dense forest, lowland grassland to other land uses was 95% and 90%, respectively. Population growth, agricultural and farmland expansion, and infrastructural development were ranked as the three most important drivers of degradation under the business as usual scenario, while sustainable land management, good governance, and reforestation were ranked as the three most important predictors of LULCC reduction under the green economy scenario. In general, production and living space functions significantly increased at the expense of ecological land cover. Prioritising and increasing the legal protection of the mountain and coastal land-boundary ecosystems while providing for production and living land are invaluable for the sustainability of the social-ecological systems in the western highlands of Cameroon.

在喀麦隆，农业用地和建成区在高地和低地生态系统上的水平扩展的旧模式仍然很普遍，这导致土地利用变化和土地利用的重大变化，并破坏了社会生态系统的复原力和可持续性。我们分析了1986年和2018年的卫星图像，以研究喀麦隆法科次区域LULCC的范围和空间格局。此外，我们通过让25个利益相关者参与焦点小组调查，探索了LULCC的可能性以及该地区LULCC的驱动因素和预测因素的影响程度。耕地，人工林，油棕和香蕉种植园的其他耕地面积分别增加了21360公顷（10.5％），3152公顷（1.6％），5721公顷（2.8％）和1823公顷（0.9％）森林，橡胶和茶园的覆盖面积减少了− 44,945公顷（− 22.1％），− 15 从1986年到2018年，分别为557公顷（-7.7％）和-110公顷（-0.1％）。与广泛宣传的说法相反，大部分的森林砍伐和低碳土地利用是小农扩大耕地的其他耕地面积引起的农业工业和建成区扩张。LULCC的空间格局表明，北部和东部地区的其他耕地和农工人工林的扩张分别最大，而中部地区的建成区扩张和农工人工林覆盖的减少最大。 ，法科分部的南部和西部沿海地区。各分区之间LULCC空间格局的变化归因于人口增长和城市化速度，地形，农业人口规模，可耕地比例，社会经济机会，以及当地经济的实力和弹性。喀麦隆山（4095 m）的存在，高价值的森林，地方性和保护吸引力限制了LULCC随着海拔的升高而增加，而LULCC则随着距海和国家公路网的临近而增加。从一种土地利用，土地利用的变化到油棕种植，香蕉种植​​和其他耕种地区，以及从橡胶种植，茂密的森林，低地草原到其他土地利用的变化的可能性分别为95％和90％。在照常营业的情况下，人口增长，农业和农田的扩张以及基础设施的发展被认为是退化的三个最重要的驱动因素，而可持续的土地管理，良好的治理，在绿色经济情景下，森林砍伐和植树造林是LULCC减少的三个最重要的预测指标。通常，生产和生活空间功能显着增加，但以生态土地覆盖为代价。在提供生产和生活用地的同时，优先考虑并增加对山区和沿海陆地边界生态系统的法律保护对于喀麦隆西部高原的社会生态系统的可持续性具有不可估量的价值。