Sea scallops (Placopecten magellanicus) are a highly fecund species that supports one of the most commercially valuable fisheries in the northeast U.S. continental shelf region. Scallop landings exhibit significant interannual variability, with abundances widely varied due to a combination of anthropogenic and natural factors. By coupling a pelagic-stage Individual-Based scallop population dynamics Model (hereafter referred to as Scallop-IBM) with the Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS) and considering the persistent aggregations over Georges Bank (GB)/Great South Channel (GSC) as source beds, we have examined the dispersion and settlement of scallop larvae over 1978–2016. The results demonstrated that the significant interannual variability of larval dispersal was driven by biophysical interactions associated with scallop larval swimming behaviors in their early stages. The duration, frequency, and stimulus of larval vertical migration in the ocean mixed layer (OML) affected the residence time of larvae in the water column over GB. It thus sustained the persistent aggregations of scallops in the GB/GSC and Southern New England region. In addition to larval behavior in the OML, the larval transport to the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) was also closely related to the intensity and duration of northeasterly wind in autumn. There was no conspicuous connectivity of scallop larvae between GB/GSC and MAB in the past 39 years except in the autumn of 2009. In 2009, the significant larval transport to the MAB was produced by unusually strong northeasterly winds. Ignoring larval behavior in the OML could overestimate the scallop population’s connectivity between GB and the MAB and thus provide an unrealistic prediction of scallop larval recruitment in the region. Both satellite-derived SST and NECOFS show that the northeast U.S. shelf experienced climate change-induced warming. The extreme warming at the shelfbreak off GB tends to intensify the cross-isobath water temperature gradient and enhance the clockwise subtidal gyre over GB. This change can increase the larval retention rate over GB/GSC, facilitating enhanced productivity on GB.

海扇贝（Placopecten magellanicus）是高度繁殖的物种，为美国东北大陆架地区最有商业价值的渔业之一提供了支持。扇贝着陆表现出显着的年际变化，由于人为因素和自然因素的结合，其丰度变化很大。通过将远洋阶段基于个体的扇贝种群动态模型（以下称为扇贝IBM）与东北沿海海洋预报系统（NECOFS）耦合，并考虑乔治银行（GB）/大南海道（GSC）上的持续聚集作为源床，我们研究了1978-2016年扇贝幼虫的扩散和沉降。结果表明，幼虫扩散的年际显着变化是由与扇贝幼体游泳行为相关的生物物理相互作用驱动的。幼虫在海洋混合层（OML）中垂直迁移的持续时间，频率和刺激作用影响了幼虫在水柱上停留超过GB的时间。因此，它在GB / GSC和新英格兰南部地区维持了扇贝的持续聚集。除了OML中的幼虫行为外，幼虫向中大西洋大西洋（MAB）的运输还与秋季东北风的强度和持续时间密切相关。在过去的39年中，除2009年秋季外，GB / GSC和MAB之间没有明显的扇贝幼虫连通性。2009年，异常强的东北风产生了向MAB的大量幼体运输。忽略OML中的幼虫行为可能会高估扇贝种群在GB和MAB之间的连通性，从而为该地区扇贝幼虫的募集提供不切实际的预测。来自卫星的SST和NECOFS都表明，美国东北陆架经历了气候变化引起的变暖。搁板突破GB处的极端变暖趋向于增强跨等温线水温梯度，并增强GB之上的顺时针潮汐下回旋。此更改可以提高GB / GSC上的幼虫保留率，从而有助于提高GB上的生产率。搁板突破GB处的极端变暖趋向于增强跨等温线水温梯度，并增强GB之上的顺时针潮汐下回旋。此更改可以提高GB / GSC上的幼虫保留率，从而有助于提高GB上的生产率。搁板突破GB处的极端变暖趋向于增强跨等温线水温梯度，并增强GB之上的顺时针潮汐下回旋。此更改可以提高GB / GSC上的幼虫保留率，从而有助于提高GB上的生产率。