Paralytic shellfish toxin (PST) events are often difficult to predict because synergistic processes, involving multiple temporal and spatial scales, are responsible for their development. In this study, we consider a suite of factors, from local to regional processes, driving paralytic shellfish toxin (PST) events associated with Alexandrium catenella on the east coast of Tasmania (Australia). PST concentrations in shellfish were compared against environmental variables, including daily wind speed and direction, satellite chlorophyll-a, sea surface temperature and river discharge. Relationships were tested using generalized linear models (GLMs). GLM coefficients confirm that high PST events were significantly favored by cooler temperatures and higher chlorophyll-a concentrations. PST were seasonal, occurring between August and November and showed a significant relationship with sustained coastal upwelling and wind transition events after one to three months of predominantly upwelling winds. Satellite imagery shows evidence of cross shelf transport moderating PST events. Overall, the results suggest that a combination of factors (currents, upwelling conditions and changes in sea surface temperature) work together to initiate and moderate PST events. The use of GLMs provides a useful tool for understanding synergistic relationships. These techniques are of value for developing reliable predictive models to forecast and manage the effects of harmful and costly PST events.

麻痹性贝类毒素（PST）事件通常很难预测，因为涉及多个时空尺度的协同过程是其发展的原因。在这项研究中，我们考虑了从局部到区域过程的一系列因素，这些因素驱动与塔斯马尼亚岛（澳大利亚）东海岸亚历山大藻相关的麻痹性贝类毒素（PST）事件。将贝类中的PST浓度与环境变量进行比较，包括每日风速和风向，卫星叶绿素a，海面温度和河流流量。关系使用广义线性模型（GLM）进行测试。GLM系数证实，较低的温度和较高的叶绿素a明显促进了高PST事件的发生。浓度。PST是季节性的，发生在8月至11月之间，与主要持续上升气流一到三个月后，与持续的海岸上升流和风力过渡事件有显着关系。卫星图像显示了跨架运输减缓PST事件的证据。总体而言，结果表明，多种因素（洋流，上升流条件和海表温度变化）共同作用，可以启动和缓和PST事件。GLM的使用为理解协同关系提供了有用的工具。这些技术对于开发可靠的预测模型，以预测和管理有害和代价高昂的PST事件的影响具有价值。