This study evaluates the historical mean surface temperature (hereafter T2m) and examines how T2m changes over East Africa (EA) in the 21st century using CMIP6 models. An evaluation was conducted based on mean state, trends, and statistical metrics (Bias, Correlation Coefficient, Root Mean Square Difference, and Taylor skill score). For projections over EA, five best performing CMIP6 models (based on their performance ranking in historical mean temperature simulations) under the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were employed. The historical simulations reveal an overestimation of the mean annual T2m cycle over the study region with fewer models depicting underestimations. Further, CMIP6 models reproduce the spatial and temporal trends within the observed range proximity. Overall, the best performing models are as follows: FGOALS-g3, HadGEM-GC31-LL, MPI-ESM2-LR, CNRM-CM6-1,andIPSL-CM6A-LR. During the three-time slices under consideration, the Multi Model Ensemble (MME) project many changes during the late period (2080–2100) with expected mean changes at 2.4 °C for SSP2-4.5 and 4.4 °C for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The magnitude of change based on Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall test reveal significant increasing tendencies with projections of 0.24 °C decade-1 (0.65 °C decade-1) under SSP2-4.5(SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The findings from this study illustrate higher warming in the latest model outputs of CMIP6 relative to its predecessor, despite identical instantaneous radiative forcing.

这项研究评估了历史平均表面温度（以下称T2m），并使用CMIP6模型研究了21世纪东非（EA）上T2m的变化。根据平均状态，趋势和统计指标（偏差，相关系数）进行了评估。，均方根差和泰勒技能得分）。对于EA的预测，在共享的社会经济路径SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5方案下，使用了五个性能最好的CMIP6模型（基于它们在历史平均温度模拟中的性能排名）。历史模拟显示，研究区域内的平均年T2m周期被高估了，较少的模型描述了低估。此外，CMIP6模型再现了所观察范围内的空间和时间趋势。总体而言，效果最好的模型如下：FGOALS-g3，HadGEM-GC31-LL，MPI-ESM2-LR，CNRM-CM6-1和IPSL-CM6A-LR。在考虑的三个时间片中，Multi Model Ensemble（MME）预测了后期（2080–2100）的许多变化，SSP2-4.5和4的预期平均变化为2.4°C。SSP5-8.5场景为4°C。基于Sen的斜率估计器和Mann-Kendall检验的变化幅度显示出在SSP2-4.5（SSP5-8.5）方案下预测值为0.24°C十进制-1（0.65°C十进制-1）的显着趋势。这项研究的结果表明，尽管瞬时辐射强迫相同，但最新模型输出的CMIP6却比其前身更高。