Drought is projected to become more frequent and increasingly severe under climate change in many agriculturally important areas. However, few studies have assessed and mapped the future global crop drought risk—defined as the occurrence probability and likelihood of yield losses from drought—at high resolution. With support of the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk model, we propose an analytical framework to quantify and map the future global-scale maize drought risk at a 0.5° resolution. In this framework, the model can be calibrated and validated using datasets from in situ observations (for example, yield statistics, losses caused by drought) and the literature. Water stress and drought risk under climate change can then be simulated. To evaluate the applicability of the framework, a global-scale assessment of maize drought risk under 1.5 °C warming was conducted. At 1.5 °C warming, the maize drought risk is projected to be regionally variable (high in the midlatitudes and low in the tropics and subtropics), with only a minor negative (− 0.93%) impact on global maize yield. The results are consistent with previous studies of drought impacts on maize yield of major agricultural countries around the world. Therefore, the framework can act as a practical tool for global-scale, future-oriented crop drought risk assessment, and the results provide theoretical support for adaptive planning strategies for drought.

在许多农业重要地区，由于气候变化，干旱预计将变得更加频繁和严重。但是，很少有研究以高分辨率对未来的全球农作物干旱风险（定义为干旱造成产量损失的发生概率和可能性）进行评估和作图。在GEPIC-脆弱性-风险模型的支持下，我们提出了一个分析框架，以0​​.5°的分辨率量化和绘制了未来全球范围内玉米干旱的风险。在此框架中，可以使用原位观测的数据集（例如，产量统计数据，干旱造成的损失）和文献资料对模型进行校准和验证。然后可以模拟气候变化下的水分胁迫和干旱风险。为了评估该框架的适用性，在1下对玉米干旱风险进行了全球范围的评估。进行5℃的加热。在1.5°C的升温下，玉米干旱风险预计会因地区而异（中纬度地区较高，热带和亚热带地区较低），对全球玉米单产仅产生较小的负面影响（-0.93％）。该结果与之前有关干旱对世界主要农业国家玉米产量的影响的研究一致。因此，该框架可以作为全球性的，面向未来的作物干旱风险评估的实用工具，其结果为适应性干旱规划策略提供理论支持。该结果与之前有关干旱对世界主要农业国家玉米产量的影响的研究一致。因此，该框架可以作为全球性的，面向未来的作物干旱风险评估的实用工具，其结果为适应性干旱规划策略提供理论支持。该结果与之前有关干旱对世界主要农业国家玉米产量的影响的研究一致。因此，该框架可以作为全球性的，面向未来的作物干旱风险评估的实用工具，其结果为适应性干旱规划策略提供理论支持。