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The Effect of Social Distancing on the Early Spread of the Novel Coronavirus
Social Science Quarterly ( IF 1.781 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-12 , DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12988
Gregory Price 1 , Eric van Holm 2
Affiliation  

This article quantifies the effect of individual social distancing on the spread of the novel coronavirus. To do so, we use data on time spent by individuals on activities that would potentially expose them to crowds from the American Time Use Survey linked with state-level data on positive tests from the COVID Tracking Project. We estimate count data specifications of observed COVID-19 infections at the state level as a function of control demographic variables, and a measure of social distance that captures the amount of time individuals across the states spend in activities that potentially expose them to crowds. Parameter estimates reveal that the number of state-level novel coronavirus infections decrease with respect to our measure of individual social distance. From a practical perspective, our parameter estimates suggest that if the typical individual in a U.S. state were to spend eight hours away from crowds completely, this would translate into approximately 240,000 fewer COVID-19 infections across the states. Our results suggest that, at least in the United States, social distancing policies are effective in slowing the spread of the novel coronavirus.

中文翻译:

社交距离对新型冠状病毒早期传播的影响

本文量化了个人社交距离对新型冠状病毒传播的影响。为此,我们使用来自美国时间使用调查的个人在可能使他们暴露在人群中的活动所花费的时间数据,并与来自 COVID 跟踪项目的阳性测试的州级数据相关联。我们估计在州一级观察到的 COVID-19 感染的计数数据规范作为控制人口变量的函数,以及社会距离的衡量标准,该衡量标准衡量了各州个人在可能使他们暴露于人群的活动中所花费的时间量。参数估计表明,相对于我们对个人社会距离的衡量,州级新型冠状病毒感染的数量有所减少。从实践的角度来看,我们的参数估计表明,如果美国某个州的典型个人完全远离人群 8 小时,这将转化为全州约 240,000 例 COVID-19 感染病例。我们的研究结果表明,至少在美国,社会疏离政策可有效减缓新型冠状病毒的传播。
更新日期:2021-05-12
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