当前位置: X-MOL 学术Math. Methods Appl. Sci. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Analysis of transmission dynamics of COVID-19 via closed-form solutions of a susceptible-infectious-quarantined-diseased model with a quarantine-adjusted incidence function
Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-10 , DOI: 10.1002/mma.7481
Rehana Naz 1 , Marwan Al-Raeei 2
Affiliation  

We analyze the disease control and prevention strategies in a susceptible-infectious-quarantined-diseased (SIQD) model with a quarantine-adjusted incidence function. We have established the closed-form solutions for all the variables of SIQD model with a quarantine-adjusted incidence function provided β γ + α by utilizing the classical techniques of solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The epidemic peak and time required to attain this peak are provided in closed form. We have provided closed-form expressions for force of infection and rate at which susceptible becomes infected. The management of epidemic perceptive using control and prevention strategies is explained as well. The epidemic starts when ρ0 > 1, the peak of epidemic appears when number of infected attains peak value when ρ 0 = 1 , and the disease dies out ρ0 < 1. We have provided the comparison of estimated and actual epidemic peak of COVID-19 in Pakistan. The forecast of epidemic peak for the United states, Brazil, India, and the Syrian Arab Republic is given as well.

中文翻译:

通过具有隔离调整发病率函数的易感-感染-隔离-疾病模型的封闭形式解分析 COVID-19 的传播动力学

我们分析了具有隔离调整发病率函数的易感感染隔离疾病 (SIQD) 模型中的疾病控制和预防策略。我们已经为 SIQD 模型的所有变量建立了封闭形式的解决方案,并提供了隔离调整的关联函数 β γ + α 通过利用求解常微分方程 (ODE) 的经典技术。以封闭形式提供流行高峰和达到该高峰所需的时间。我们提供了感染力和易感感染率的封闭式表达式。还解释了使用控制和预防策略对流行病感知的管理。流行开始于ρ 0  > 1,当感染人数达到峰值时出现流行高峰 ρ 0 = 1 ,并且疾病消失ρ 0  < 1。我们提供了巴基斯坦 COVID-19 估计和实际流行高峰的比较。还给出了美国、巴西、印度和阿拉伯叙利亚共和国的流行高峰预测。
更新日期:2021-05-10
down
wechat
bug