While climate change will alter the distribution of water in time and space, quantifications of drought risk under global warming remain uncertain. Here, we show that in Europe, drought damages could strongly increase with global warming and cause a regional imbalance in future drought impacts. In the absence of climate action (4 °C in 2100 and no adaptation), annual drought losses in the European Union and United Kingdom combined are projected to rise to more than €65 billion per year compared with €9 billion per year currently, or two times larger when expressed relative to the size of the economy. Drought losses show the strongest rise in southern and western parts of Europe, where drought conditions at 4 °C could reduce regional agriculture economic output by 10%. With high warming, drought impacts will become a fraction of current impacts in northern and northeastern regions. Keeping global warming well below 2 °C would avoid most impacts in affected regions.

虽然气候变化将改变水在时间和空间上的分布，但全球变暖下干旱风险的量化仍然不确定。在这里，我们表明，在欧洲，干旱损失可能会随着全球变暖而大幅增加，并导致未来干旱影响的区域失衡。在没有气候行动的情况下（2100 年 4 °C 且没有适应），预计欧盟和英国每年的干旱损失加起来将超过 650 亿欧元，而目前为每年 90 亿欧元，或以相对于经济规模表示时大两倍。干旱损失在欧洲南部和西部地区增长最为强劲，4°C 的干旱条件可能使区域农业经济产出减少 10%。伴随着高温，干旱影响将成为北部和东北地区当前影响的一小部分。将全球变暖控制在远低于 2°C 将避免对受影响地区的大部分影响。