We explore the influence of between-school ability placement at lower secondary education on earnings across the life course in England and Denmark. We go beyond the mid-career snapshot provided by previous studies by exploiting the availability of four decades worth of earnings data for individuals born in the mid-1950s. Members of this cohort who were judged to be among the most academically able attended grammar schools in England (19%) and advanced secondary schools (Realskole) in Denmark (51%) prior to the start of comprehensivization. This key difference makes England and Denmark interesting cases for comparison, not least since pro-selection policies have re-emerged in England based on the claim that grammar schools lead to better educational and labor market outcomes. Our analysis of the influence of selective school placement on earnings finds little support for this contention. We find that those from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds were strikingly under-represented in schools ear-marked for higher ability pupils in both countries, even after taking into account social class differences in measured ability. Our analysis for England finds only modest earnings returns to attending a grammar school, totalling just £39,000 across the life course, while in Denmark the lifetime earnings returns to attending Realskole are somewhat larger (£194,000). Because those from advantaged backgrounds were substantially over-represented at grammar schools and Realskoles, these returns accrue disproportionately to pupils from more advantaged backgrounds. Lower secondary school placement in Denmark accounts for 40% of the intergenerational reproduction of socioeconomic advantage and disadvantage, more than half of which is due to selection into school types based on socioeconomic background rather than measured ability. Our findings question the wisdom of expanding grammar schools when they appear to do little to improve individuals’ earnings or increase social mobility.

中文翻译：

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生活在正轨？长期收入回报英国和丹麦的精英学校安置

我们探讨了英国和丹麦初中教育的校际能力安置对整个生命历程中的收入的影响。通过利用 1950 年代中期出生的个人的四个十年的收入数据的可用性，我们超越了先前研究提供的职业中期快照。该队列中被评为学术能力最强的成员就读于英格兰的文法学校 (19%) 和高级中学 ( Realskole) 在丹麦 (51%) 开始综合化之前。这一关键差异使英格兰和丹麦成为有趣的比较案例，尤其是因为基于文法学校带来更好的教育和劳动力市场结果的主张，支持选择政策在英格兰重新出现。我们对精英学校安置对收入的影响的分析几乎没有支持这一论点。我们发现，即使考虑到社会阶层在衡量能力方面的差异，那些来自社会经济弱势背景的学生在这两个国家指定给高能力学生的学校中的人数明显不足。我们对英格兰的分析发现，就读文法学校的收入回报并不高，整个生命过程中的总收入仅为 39,000 英镑，而在丹麦，上学的终生收入回报为Realskole稍大一些（194,000 英镑）。由于那些来自优势背景的学生在文法学校和Realskoles 中的比例明显过高，因此这些回报对来自优势背景的学生的增长不成比例。丹麦的初中教育占社会经济优势和劣势代际再生产的 40%，其中一半以上是由于根据社会经济背景而非衡量能力选择学校类型。我们的研究结果质疑扩大文法学校是否明智，因为它们似乎对提高个人收入或增加社会流动性几乎没有作用。