Journal of Water & Climate Change ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-01 , DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2020.153 Hasti Hemati 1 , Ahmad Abrishamchi 1
The combined effects of climate change and growing water demand due to population growth, industrial and agricultural developments cause an increase in water scarcity and the subsequent environmental crisis in river basins, which results in conflicts over the property rights and allocation agreements. Thus, an integrated, sustainable and efficient water allocation considering changes in water resources due to climate change and change of users' demands is necessary. In this study, the drainage basin of Zarinehrood was chosen to evaluate the function of selective methods. Assessing climate change impact scenarios of the Fifth IPCC reports, e.g., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, have been used. For downscaling outputs of GCMs an artificial neural network (ANN) and for bias correction a quantile mapping (QM) method have been used. Using a bargaining game and the Nash bargaining solution (NBS) with two methods, one symmetric and two AHP methods, the water available for users was allocated. Results indicate an overall increase in temperature and precipitation in the basin. In bargaining game solutions, AHP provided better utilities for players than the symmetric method. These results show that with water management programs and use of a cooperative bargaining game, water allocation can be done in an efficient way.
中文翻译:
在气候变化影响下使用博弈论进行水分配(案例研究:Zarinehrood)
气候变化和人口增长,工农业发展引起的用水需求增加的综合影响,导致水资源短缺和随后的流域环境危机加剧,导致财产权和分配协议发生冲突。因此,有必要进行综合,可持续和高效的水资源分配,考虑由于气候变化和用户需求变化而引起的水资源变化。在这项研究中,选择Zarinehrood流域来评估选择性方法的功能。评估了第五次IPCC报告对气候变化的影响情景,例如RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0和RCP8.5。为了缩小GCM的输出,使用了人工神经网络(ANN),并且为了进行偏差校正,使用了分位数映射(QM)方法。使用讨价还价博弈和Nash讨价还价解决方案(NBS)并采用两种方法(一种是对称方法,两种是AHP方法),为用户分配了可用水。结果表明该盆地的温度和降水总体增加。在讨价还价的游戏解决方案中,与对称方法相比,AHP为玩家提供了更好的实用程序。这些结果表明,通过水管理程序和使用合作议价博弈,可以有效地完成水分配。