Extreme climate events often have a significant and direct impact on social, economic, and environmental systems. This study is an attempt to characterize the current trends and future projections of extreme climatic indices in an arid region of Morocco on both an annual and a seasonal scale using 12 precipitation and temperature-based indices. The Mann–Kendall test was used to assess the trends, and the inverse distance weighted interpolation method was employed to analyze the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices. The results showed that the most extreme climate indices are spatially distributed with a clear gradient from the mountainous area toward the plains. Furthermore, the analysis indicates nonsignificant downward trends in the number of days with a rainfall amount greater than 10 or 20 mm. However, a significant negative trend in the consecutive dry days was observed at the Iloujdane and Sidi Bouathmane stations. The temperature indices have recorded statistically significant upward trends at all the stations. Finally, based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, future climate change simulations show, respectively, annual precipitation decreases of 23 and 34% and temperature increases of 1.9 and 2.8 °C, which could imply substantial losses of cereal yield in the rainfed agriculture.

极端气候事件通常会对社会，经济和环境系统产生重大而直接的影响。这项研究试图使用12种基于降水和温度的指数来表征摩洛哥干旱地区在年度和季节尺度上极端气候指数的当前趋势和未来预测。用Mann–Kendall检验评估趋势，并采用反距离加权插值法分析极端降水指数的空间分布。结果表明，从山区到平原，最极端的气候指数在空间上以明显的梯度分布。此外，分析表明降雨量大于10或20 mm的天数没有明显下降趋势。然而，在Iloujdane和Sidi Bouathmane站，连续干旱期间出现了显着的负趋势。温度指数记录了所有站点的统计上显着的上升趋势。最后，根据RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景，未来的气候变化模拟分别显示年降水量减少23％和34％，温度增加1.9和2.8°C，这可能意味着该地区谷物产量将大量减少。雨养农业。