Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide range of plausible global futures through to 2050. We adapted the widely used “two axes” scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlights that socioeconomic developments and technological innovation have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known drivers, such as climate and human land use change and global trade. Our scenarios partially align with the shared socioeconomic pathways created by the climate change research community. Several factors that drive differences in biological invasions were underrepresented in the shared socioeconomic pathways; in particular, the implementation of biosecurity policies. We argue that including factors related to public environmental awareness and technological and trade development in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments and thereby obtain a more integrative picture of future social–ecological developments.

情景分析已成为分析复杂和不确定的未来社会生态发展的关键工具。但是，目前现有的全球情景（关于世界发展方式的叙述）忽略了生物入侵，这是对生物多样性和经济的重大威胁。在这里，我们使用一种新颖的参与性过程，开发了一套跨越2050年前似有可能的全球未来的全球生物入侵方案。我们采用了广泛使用的“两轴”方案分析方法，以开发四个家族，每组四个方案，从而产生了16种情况，这些情况后来又被归类为四组相对的期货。我们的分析突出表明，除了众所周知的驱动因素外，社会经济发展和技术创新还可能影响生物入侵，例如气候和人类土地用途的变化以及全球贸易。我们的方案部分与气候变化研究社区创建的共享社会经济途径保持一致。在共同的社会经济途径中，不足以驱动生物入侵差异的几个因素。特别是生物安全政策的执行。我们认为，在全球情景和模型中纳入与公共环境意识以及技术和贸易发展相关的因素对于在全球环境评估中充分考虑生物入侵并从而获得对未来社会生态发展的更全面了解是必不可少的。在共同的社会经济途径中，不足以驱动生物入侵差异的几个因素。特别是生物安全政策的执行。我们认为，在全球情景和模型中纳入与公共环境意识以及技术和贸易发展相关的因素对于在全球环境评估中充分考虑生物入侵并从而获得对未来社会生态发展的更全面了解是必不可少的。在共同的社会经济途径中，不足以驱动生物入侵差异的几个因素。特别是生物安全政策的执行。我们认为，在全球情景和模型中纳入与公共环境意识以及技术和贸易发展相关的因素，对于在全球环境评估中充分考虑生物入侵并从而获得对未来社会生态发展的更全面了解是必不可少的。