We analyzed the short- (2030) and long-term (2100) impacts of elevated seawater temperatures on the 14 most important aquaculture species around the Korean Peninsula under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Under these scenarios, the differences in sea surface temperatures that currently exist (i.e., where the South Sea is warmer than the East Sea and West Sea), decrease, and sea surface temperatures increase more rapidly in the East Sea and West Sea compared with the South Sea, with similar elevated summertime temperatures. We measured the durations of periods of optimal water temperature (ensuring optimal growth) and tolerable temperature (ensuring survival) for each target species as the criteria for assessing the impact of increased seawater temperatures on aquafarming. Our results suggest that the predicted northward shift in suitable aquafarming locations in Korea will not necessarily apply to all species. In addition, according to the results of non-optimal temperature frequency extraction based on averages in the major farming regions, the frequency of periods of non-optimal temperatures was higher under the RCP8.5 scenario. A comparison among the target aquaculture species revealed relatively low frequencies of periods with non-optimal temperatures for finfish and shellfish products and high frequencies for seaweed products.

我们在两种代表性的浓缩途径（RCPs）情景下（RCP4.5和RCP8.5），分析了海水温度升高对朝鲜半岛14个最重要的水产养殖物种的短期（2030）和长期（2100）影响。在这些情况下，当前存在的海面温度差异（即南海比东海和西海温暖的地方）减少，并且与南海，夏季温度类似。我们测量了每个目标物种的最佳水温（确保最佳生长）和可忍受温度（确保生存）的持续时间，以此作为评估海水温度升高对水产养殖影响的标准。我们的结果表明，在韩国合适的水产养殖地点向北移动的预测并不一定适用于所有物种。此外，根据主要农业地区基于平均值的非最佳温度频率提取结果，在RCP8.5情景下，非最佳温度周期的频率更高。在目标水产养殖物种之间进行的比较显示，有鳍和贝类产品的时期频率相对较低，非最佳温度，而海藻类产品的频率较高。在RCP8.5方案下，非最佳温度的发生频率较高。在目标水产养殖物种之间进行的比较显示，有鳍和贝类产品的时期频率相对较低，非最佳温度，而海藻类产品的频率较高。在RCP8.5方案下，非最佳温度的发生频率较高。在目标水产养殖物种之间进行的比较显示，有鳍和贝类产品的时期频率相对较低，非最佳温度，而海藻类产品的频率较高。