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A new SEIAR model on small-world networks to assess the intervention measures in the COVID-19 pandemics
Results in Physics ( IF 5.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-08 , DOI: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104283
Jie Li 1 , Jiu Zhong 1 , Yong-Mao Ji 1 , Fang Yang 1
Affiliation  

A new susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatically infected-removed (SEIAR) model is developed to depict the COVID-19 transmission process, considering the latent period and asymptomatically infected. We verify the suppression effect of typical measures, cultivating human awareness, and reducing social contacts. As for cutting off social connections, the feasible measures encompass social distancing policy, isolating infected communities, and isolating hub nodes. Furthermore, it is found that implementing corresponding anti-epidemic measures at different pandemic stages can achieve significant results at a low cost. In the beginning, global lockdown policy is necessary, but isolating infected wards and hub nodes could be more beneficial as the situation eases. The proposed SEIAR model emphasizes the latent period and asymptomatically infected, thus providing theoretical support for subsequent research.



中文翻译:

一个关于小世界网络的新 SEIAR 模型,用于评估 COVID-19 大流行的干预措施

开发了一种新的易感者-暴露-感染-无症状感染-移除(SEIAR)模型来描述COVID-19的传播过程,考虑潜伏期和无症状感染者。我们验证典型措施的抑制效果,培养人的意识,减少社会接触。至于切断社交联系,可行的措施包括社交距离政策、隔离感染社区、隔离枢纽节点等。此外,研究发现,在疫情的不同阶段实施相应的抗疫措施,可以以较低的成本取得显着的效果。一开始,全球封锁政策是必要的,但随着情况缓解,隔离受感染的病房和中心节点可能会更有利。提出的SEIAR模型强调潜伏期和无症状感染者,从而为后续研究提供理论支持。

更新日期:2021-05-13
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