Continuous emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols in the last 160 years have resulted in an increasing trend of global mean surface temperatures (GMSTs). Due to interactions with natural variability, rates of the combined anthropogenically and naturally induced warming trends are characterized by significant slowdowns and speedups on decadal timescales. Here, by analyzing observed and model-simulated data, we investigate how the duration of these episodes will change with different strengths of GHG and aerosol forcing. We found that the duration of warming slowdowns can be more than 30 yr with a slower rate of anthropogenic emissions but would shorten to about 5 yr with a higher one. This duration reduction depends on both the magnitude of the climate response to anthropogenic forcing and the strength of the internal variability. Moreover, the warming slowdowns can still occur even towards the end of this century under high emissions scenarios but with significantly shortened duration.

在过去的160年中，人为产生的温室气体（GHGs）和气溶胶的持续排放导致全球平均表面温度（GMSTs）呈上升趋势。由于与自然可变性的相互作用，人为和自然诱发的变暖趋势的结合速率的特征是十年时间尺度上的显着减慢和加速。在这里，通过分析观察到的和模型模拟的数据，我们研究了这些事件的持续时间将如何随着温室气体和气溶胶强迫的不同强度而改变。我们发现，随着人为排放速率的降低，变暖的持续时间可以超过30年，而随着人为排放量的增加，变暖的持续时间将缩短至约5年。这种持续时间的减少既取决于气候对人为强迫的响应幅度，也取决于内部变率的强度。此外，即使到本世纪末，在高排放情景下，变暖的减速仍然可能发生，但是持续时间大大缩短。