One of the most recognizable icons of the Namib Desert is the endemic gymnosperm Welwitschia mirabilis. Recent studies indicated that climate change may seriously affect populations in the northern Namibia subrange (Kunene region), but their extinction risk has not yet been assessed. In this study, we apply IUCN criteria to define the extinction risk of welwitschia populations in northern Namibia and assign them to a red list category. We collected field data to estimate relevant parameters for this assessment. We observed 1330 plants clustered in 12 small and isolated stands. The extent of occurrence has a surface area of 214.2 km² (i.e., <5000 km²) and the area of occupancy a surface area of 56.0 km² (i.e. < 500 km²). The quality of habitat is expected to face a reduction of 69.47% (i.e., >50%) as a consequence of climate change predicted in the area. These data indicate a very high extinction risk for welwitschia in northern Kunene, hence, we classify these populations as endangered (EN) according to IUCN criteria. Similar assessments for other subranges are prevented by the lack of relevant data, an issue that deserves further research attention. Our results advocate the necessity of a management plan for the species, including measures for mitigating the impact of climate change on isolated populations across its fragmented range.

纳米布沙漠最知名的标志之一是特有的裸子植物千岁兰（Welwitschia mirabilis）。最近的研究表明，气候变化可能严重影响纳米比亚北部（库内内地区）的人口，但尚未评估其灭绝风险。在这项研究中，我们应用IUCN标准来定义纳米比亚北部钉螺种群的灭绝风险，并将其归为红色名录类别。我们收集了现场数据，以评估此评估的相关参数。我们观察到1330株植物聚集在12个较小且孤立的林分中。发生范围的表面积为214.2 km ²（即<5000 km ²），占用区域的表面积为56.0 km ²（即<500 km ^2））。由于该地区预测的气候变化，预计栖息地质量将下降69.47％（即> 50％）。这些数据表明，在北部库内内（Kunene）北部发生极弱的灭绝风险，因此，根据自然保护联盟（IUCN）的标准，我们将这些种群归为濒危物种（EN）。缺少相关数据可以防止对其他子范围进行类似的评估，这一问题值得进一步研究。我们的结果主张必须制定该物种的管理计划，包括减轻气候变化对其分散范围内的孤立种群的影响的措施。