Leveraging spatiotemporal variation in homicides that occurred during a 2.5-year weekly panel survey of 387 women ages 18-22 in Flint, Michigan, we investigate how young women's desires to become pregnant and to avoid pregnancy evolve in response to local homicides during the transition to adulthood. To address the endogeneity of exposure, we explore how the same woman's pregnancy desires (1) differed, on average, across weeks before and after the first homicide occurred within a quarter mile of her home; (2) evolved in the aftermath of this initial homicide exposure; and (3) changed in response to additional nearby homicides. One-fifth (22%) of women were exposed to a nearby homicide at least once during the study, and one-third of these women were exposed multiple times. Overall, the effects of nearby homicides were gradual: although average desires to become pregnant and to avoid pregnancy differed after initial exposure, these differences emerged approximately three to five months post-exposure. Repeated exposure to nearby homicides had nonlinear effects on how much women wanted to become pregnant and how much they wanted to avoid pregnancy. Together, our analyses provide a new explanation for why some young women-especially those who are socially disadvantaged-desire pregnancy at an early age.

中文翻译：

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附近的凶杀案如何影响年轻女性的怀孕意愿：来自准实验的证据。

利用在密歇根州弗林特对 387 名 18-22 岁女性进行为期 2.5 年的每周小组调查期间发生的凶杀案的时空变化，我们调查了年轻女性怀孕和避免怀孕的愿望如何随着当地凶杀案的演变而演变为成年。为了解决暴露的内生性问题，我们探讨了同一名妇女的怀孕愿望 (1) 在第一起凶杀案发生在距离她家四分之一英里的范围内前后的几周内平均有何不同；(2) 在这次最初的杀人案曝光后演变而来；(3) 因附近发生的其他凶杀案而发生变化。五分之一 (22%) 的女性在研究期间至少接触过一次附近的凶杀案，其中三分之一的女性多次接触过附近的凶杀案。总体而言，附近凶杀案的影响是渐进的：尽管初次接触后怀孕和避免怀孕的平均愿望有所不同，但这些差异在接触后大约三到五个月出现。反复接触附近的凶杀案对女性想要怀孕的程度以及她们想要避免怀孕的程度具有非线性影响。总之，我们的分析提供了一个新的解释，解释为什么一些年轻女性——尤其是那些处于社会弱势地位的女性——希望早孕。